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Context
India-Russia ties:India needs to re-engage with its ally Russia, which is getting closer to China and Pakistan
Russia growing closer with Pakistan
- Russia signalling its support for Pakistan’s candidature to the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
- Joint military exercises between Russia and Pakistan, of the kind held in October 2017, are another major concern for India
The Question raised
What are the risks of allowing a historically close bilateral relationship with Moscow to become a relatively lower priority, and can India ever hope to attain the same level of trust with any another ally?
The Answer: NO
The answers to both questions seem to be in the negative, namely that the risks are high and the odds of “replacing” Russian support quite low, at least for now.
Biggest Risk
The ongoing shift in equations with Russia could lead to Russia drifting away from India
Possibility of a Russia-Pakistan-China trilateral
It is easy to imagine that both China and Pakistan would be eager to support such an alliance as it could arrest India’s strategic momentum in the region and globally.
What can be done to stop this from happening?
If people-to-people contact between the two countries is promoted more, it could help ensure deeper linkages and fortify past associations.
Conclusion
The quickest remedy is to reengage with Russia with the specific aim of demonstrating that it is still an important friend of India.
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