Behind the ‘Russia tilt’ – Unpacking India’s ‘national interest’, more than a year after the invasion

Source: The post is based on the article “Behind the ‘Russia tilt’ – Unpacking India’s ‘national interest’, more than a year after the invasion” published in the Business Standard on 24th April 2023.

Syllabus: GS – 2: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests..

Relevance: About India’s ‘national interest’ and the Russia-Ukraine war.

News: More than a year has passed since the armies of the Russian Federation launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the past year, Russian ministers regularly interacted with India and vice versa. But similar interactions with Ukraine are rare.

How have India – Russia relations been shaped in the recent past?

-India needs the Russians for oil, weapons and for their Security Council vote. Russia has increased its share of crude oil imports into India.

Note: A large proportion of this oil, after all, is being processed and then re-exported.

What are the concerns associated with India-Russia ties in recent times?

Sustainability of India’s energy purchase from Russia: The People’s Republic of China is building up the infrastructure required to increase its use of Russian fossil fuels. Once it is done, it can hurt India’s heavy reliance on Russian supplies, especially in a crisis.

India’s excess reliance on Russian Weaponry: According to experts, the current stock of Indian weapons platforms that are of Russian origin is over 80%. The major concerns of this are, a) India’s military procurements might be threatened if Russia decided to replenish their domestic arsenal due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, b) Experts questions the actual quality of Russian weaponry as their performance in the Ukraine war is not up to the expected level.

Russia’s support in the Security Council: The closer Russia gets to China the less reliable a vote it will be in security council.

Despite these concerns, Russia can and will be central to India’s military preparedness in the decades to come.

What are the challenges in maintaining India’s ‘national interest’ at present?

Issues in maintaining Non-alignment: Non-alignment worked during the Cold War because India was not a direct target of either Russia or The US. But, in a 21st-century Cold War might happen between The US and China. China is seen as a strategic rival by India, so it is harder to stay non-aligned.

Limited Western help to India: The West can and will do only a little for India in a moment of crisis. For instance, the Western countries did not collaborate well with India when Indian soldiers died on the Chinese border a few years ago.