Bolstering Deterrence through Submarine Dominance

UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 3- Security challenges and their management in border areas .

Introduction

The mention of ‘Aridhaman’ by Rajnath Singh triggered speculation about the commissioning of India’s third SSBN. This follows INS Arihant (2016) and INS Arighat (2024). The development reflects India’s steady effort to strengthen sea-based nuclear capability, which is central to enhancing deterrence in a rapidly changing strategic environment and evolving maritime security landscape.

Evolution of India’s SSBN Programme

1. Early vision and institutional effort: India began serious work in the late 1970s under Dr Rajaramanna with active involvement of BARC scientists and naval planners to develop nuclear-powered submarines.
2. Technology learning through leasing: The leasing of INS Chakra from the Soviet Union in 1988 provided hands-on training, operational exposure, and a base for indigenous design development.
3. Indigenous ATV programme: The Advance Technology Vessel programme focused on building indigenous nuclear submarines, with reactor development at BARC and assembly efforts linked to Kalpakkam, along with Russian design assistance.
4. Operational progression of SSBNs: India commissioned INS Arihant in 2016 and INS Arighat in 2024, while INS Aridhaman is in final trial stages, and another Arihant-class submarine is expected to be commissioned next.
5. Upgradation in submarine capability: INS Aridhaman is a 7000-tonne submarine with higher firepower, capable of carrying 24 K-15 missiles and 8 K-4/K-5 missiles, compared to earlier submarines carrying 12 K-15 and 4 K-4 missiles.

Strengthening Nuclear Triad and Sea-Based Deterrence

1. Completion of nuclear triad capability: India now has the ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, air, and sea, placing it alongside United States, Russia, China, France, and United Kingdom.
2. Core principles of nuclear doctrine: India’s doctrine is based on credibility, survivability, and effectiveness, ensuring a strong retaliatory capability under its ‘no first use’ policy.
3. Critical importance of sea-based deterrence: SSBNs provide high survivability, endurance, flexibility, responsiveness, and connectivity, making them the most reliable and secure component of deterrence.
4. Strategic advantage over land-based systems: Land-based missiles face infrared detection risks, dependence on road and rail infrastructure, and deployment constraints, while SSBNs remain hidden and survivable despite higher cost.
5. Limitations of SSBN platforms: SSBNs have limited missile capacity (about 16–18), no immediate reload capability, and reliance on VLF communication systems, which may be vulnerable but still allow partial connectivity.

Changing Strategic Environment and Multi-Domain Warfare

1. Rising maritime competition: Increasing presence of China in the Indian Ocean through research and survey vessels with dual-use capability raises risks of surveillance and intelligence gathering, along with concerns from Pakistan.
2. Transformation of Indian Ocean dynamics: The region has shifted from relative dormancy to active strategic contestation, making maritime deterrence a critical requirement.
3. Nature of modern warfare: Conflicts are no longer confined to a single domain and can shift quickly across land, air, and sea, requiring integrated deterrence capability.
4. Global conflict example: The West Asia conflict shows how air campaigns expanded into maritime tensions, with the Strait of Hormuz becoming a key strategic point.
5. Indian operational experience: Operation Sindoor demonstrated that even counter-terror responses can have a potential naval dimension, highlighting cross-domain interaction.

Self-Reliance and Future Trajectory of Submarine Programme

1. Boost to defence self-reliance: The SSBN programme has strengthened India’s indigenous defence production capability and technological base.
2. Impact of global conflicts on supply chains: The Russia-Ukraine war has created pressure on global defence supply chains, increasing the need to reduce dependence on Russia.
3. Future expansion of submarine fleet: India plans to induct a fourth Arihant-class submarine and aims to commission indigenous SSNs by 2036 and 2038.
4. Strategic importance of submarine dominance: Submarine capability is emerging as a central pillar of India’s deterrence strategy, and supports the goal of achieving a blue-water navy and enhanced strategic status.
5. Emerging technological and resource challenges: India must balance financial resources with expansion needs, while integrating Artificial Intelligence and autonomous systems in submarine design and production, and keeping pace with China’s naval growth.

Conclusion

INS Aridhaman strengthens India’s credible, survivable, and effective nuclear deterrence capability. Sea-based deterrence has become essential in a multi-domain and contested strategic environment. The continued focus on indigenous development and submarine expansion reflects a clear strategic direction. Going forward, balancing resources, adopting advanced technologies, ensuring survivable communication, and matching China’s capabilities will be critical for maintaining deterrence and long-term strategic stability.

Question for practice:

Discuss how India’s SSBN programme, particularly the development of INS Aridhaman, strengthens nuclear deterrence and responds to the changing strategic and multi-domain security environment.

Source: The Hindu