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Contents
News: India’s national interest and its international stand on Ukraine are at centre of debate due to the Ukraine-Russia Conflict.
Status of the Russian Economy
Russia relies hugely on exports of two products, oil and petroleum products and arms products.
Oil and Petroleum: Russia’s oil and petroleum products export was 8 million barrels/day. However, The Western sanctions may lead to its reduction to 5 million barrels/day.
Arms: According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “Russia was the world’s second largest arms exporter behind the US with a market share of 19% during the period 2017-21”.
Why is India facing pressure due to the ongoing Ukraine Crisis?
India is heavily dependent on Russia for arm trade. Therefore, India is in a vulnerable situation.
Therefore, it has not taken a critical diplomatic position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Thus, Quad members and European countries aim to persuade India to take a more critical stand.
Is India in a vulnerable position because of its dependence on Russian arms imports?
Not really.
Russia is also dependent upon India for arms trade. India is Russia’s largest defence customer. India is the recipient of 28% Russian arms exports from Russia.
Importance of India to Russia’s arms exports: Russia had a global market share of 24% arms export between 2012-16 period. When India began to diversify its arms sources; Russia’s export share fell by 5%.
In the 2017-21 period, India and Saudi Arabia were the largest arms importers in the world.
What is the way forward?
India is not in a weak position in Indo-Russia defence relation. If India needs Russia’s arms, Russia needs India to buy them.
China is not going to buy more Russian arms. China is not at the top in the list of arm importing countries. In fact, China’s needs are different and its capabilities are much higher.
India has diplomatic leverage against Russia. India is in a powerful position to negotiate with Russia. Therefore, it gives India the room to critique Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
Source: The post is based on an article “Buyer’s Power: India depends on Russian arms. But Russia depends on Indian arms purchases. That gives Delhi leverage” published in the Times of India on 23rd March 22.
