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Context:
- The 2003 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan is now alive only in the breach, with violations intensifying in number and much damage to life and livelihood along the border.
- 2003 ceasefire agreement:
- It is important to see the 2003 agreement in the immediate context of the time.
- It came just four years after the Kargil war, and soon after India and Pakistan almost went to war following the December 13, 2001 terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament.
Current scenario:
- In the latest incident, four Indian soldiers, including an Army Captain, were killed in the Bhimber Gali sector in cross-border firing.
- These casualties are a natural extension of what has been unfolding along the International Boundary as well as the Line of Control for the past several months.
- As a result, 2017 has turned out to be the worst year since the agreement brought calm to the border 15 years ago.
- By way of comparison, in 2015 there had been 152 incidents, and in 2016 there were 228.
- January 2018 recorded the highest number of ceasefire violations in a month since 2003, according to estimates.
Conclusion:
- Peace on the border is difficult to achieve at the tactical level by military leaders.
- Restoring the ceasefire requires real statesmanship, not brinkmanship.
