Chasing the monsoon

Chasing the monsoon

Context

The forecast has enhanced the economic outlook, but India must conduct a water audit

What has happened?

The forecast of a normal monsoon has brought relief all around. For farmers, the India Meteorological Department’s estimate that rainfall during the summer, between June and September, will be 97% of the 50-year average of 89 cm, is bound to raise fresh expectations.

Advice to farmers on ideal cropping mix

It is vital for the Centre to arrive at a policy that gives constructive advice to farmers on the ideal cropping mix and help them get the cost-plus-50% margin that it has promised them

Utilizing the most of rainfall

• The Master Plan for Artificial Recharge to Ground Water drawn up by the Centre should be pursued scientifically, to help States with the most water-stressed blocks get adequate funds to build artificial recharge structures
• Moreover, for those farmers who choose to continue with wheat and rice, transfer of expertise and provision of equipment that enables efficient utilisation of water is vital
• An estimate of water used to grow rice and wheat, measured in cubic metres per tonne, shows that India uses more than what, say, China does
• In the case of cotton, the figures present an even more staggering contrast: 8,264 cubic metres for India, against 1,419 for China
• Combined with distortions in procurement subsidies, water stress due to such use is inevitable.

Changing pattern of monsoon

• On the monsoon as a whole, studies indicate a change in the pattern since 1950
• There is an increase in daily average rainfall since 2002, barring some of the worst El Niño years, likely due to higher land temperatures and cooler oceans
• What is well known is that a good monsoon raises agriculture’s contribution to GDP growth, while a drought year depresses it
• Clearly, governments need to invest consistently to harvest the monsoon, both on the surface and underground, with community participation.