Chronicle of a victory foretold

Chronicle of a victory foretold

Article:

1. Ahmet Tonak, an economist, and Vijay Prashad, Chief editor of Lefts words book, analyse the upcoming challenges before Turkey’s newly elected President Tayyip Erdogan.

Important Analysis:

2. Tayyip Erdogan won recent re-election as President of Turkey.

3. The elections were held in a state of emergency, imposed in July 2016 following a coup attempt.

4. Erdogan called for election a year before they were due as a clever political move. This victory will provide him opportunity to establish his political authority before he tackles the economic weakness of Turkey.

5. Turkey after financial crisis:

• After 2008 financial crisis Turkey faced lots of problems. Mr Erdogan’s initiated some steps to tackle this crisis situation.
• Aftermath of 2008 financial crisis, new money was to break unavailability of credit. Turkey like other middle-income countries (Argentina and Mexico), joined the larger economies to stimulate economic growth.
• Turkey and Mexico lose their currency value after the U. S. Federal Reserve began to reduce money supply and raise interest rates.
• Erdogan’s financial manager prevented the Turkish central bank from raising interest rates to deal with capital outflow.
• Author says that this move was  to protect his allies amongst the mid-level Anatolian business communities and the small artisans, not to protect lira.
• The Turkish currency lira dropped in value against the U.S. dollar from 3.75 TL in early 2018 to 4.92 TL by May.

6. Arab Spring in 2011:

• At the start of the Arab Spring in 2011, Mr Erdogan was confident that Turkey would re-emerge as a major player in the region.
• A foreign policy outlook named neo-Ottomanism commanded Turkey’s ambitions.
• Failure attempt to overthrow Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and defeat of Turkey’s preferred Muslim Brotherhood from Tunisia to Egypt led to the desiccation of Mr. Erdogan’s hopes for Turkish expansion.
• Moreover, tensions with the West and failure in Arab world    have driven Turkey back towards relations with Russia, China and Iran.

7. New Challenges before Turkey:

• Turkish republicanism is posing an incoherent challenge to Erdogan’s mix of nationalism and Sunni internationalism.
• It is wedded to the EU project, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation(NATO).
• The new manoeuvres of international finance capital added substantial fragility to Turkey’s economy, which already accumulated external debt of around $ 500 billion.
• By the end of the year, Turkey will have to pay down almost half of this debt.
• To do so, Mr Erdogan may be compelled to enact policies that favour business community rather than working class and peasantry.
• Higher rates of unemployment can be expected.
• Higher inflation can be seen in essential goods.

8. Conclusion:

• Edogan’s reelection will mean that Turkey will continue to stumble between its obligations to NATO and the West as well as its need for close links to Russia, China and Iran.