Source-This post on Death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has been created based on the article “An Expert Explains: What President Ebrahim Raisi’s death means for Iran” published in “The Indian Express” on 21 May 2024.
UPSC Syllabus: GS Paper 2 – International Relations- Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests
News– President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other Iranian officials were recently killed in a helicopter crash. Raisi played an important role in attempts to foster a “resistance economy” and increasing cooperation with anti-West nations like Russia and China. The article tries to explain how Iran’s political system works and the potential impact of Raisi’s death.
What is the Conservatism vs. Reformism confrontation in Iranian Politics?
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranian politics has been divided between two poles: conservatives and reformists.
Conservatives want to strictly adhere to the tenets of Twelver Shi’ism and implement its religious codes across society.
Reformists, while loyal to the Revolution, want more flexibility in domestic and international matters, such as greater rights for women, strengthening civil society, and conciliatory relations with the West.
Current balance of power-Conservatives has been dominant for most of Iran’s post-Revolution history, maintaining a firm grip despite economic challenges and protests.
What is the political structure of Iran?
1) The Supreme Leader is the head of state and the most powerful person in Iran. He has great influence in choosing presidential candidates.
2) The President operates within the overall authority of the Supreme Leader. However, he has significant power in determining how the country functions, including key foreign policy decisions.
For ex- When President Hassan Rouhani negotiated the JCPOA, he had a lot of power. One of Raisi’s big accomplishments was the Iran-Saudi deal, arranged by China. He also advocated for an ‘Axis of Resistance,’ a coalition led by Iran.
3) The Supreme Leader’s authority is superseded only in the event of a clash with the President, which has happened during reformist governments.
Read more- Challenges Between India and Iran Bilateral Ties
What is the impact of sudden death of President on Iranian politics?
1) Succession and Power Struggle-Raisi was seen as a protege of the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei but was not guaranteed to be his successor. Raisi’s death changes the field for the succession and could lead to a more fraught power struggle.
2) Appointment of Acting President– Constitutional measures have been followed that resulted in the appointment of Mohammad Mokhber as the acting President.
3) Upcoming Election and Transition Efforts– An election is scheduled to take place within 50 days, and efforts will be made by the establishment to ensure a smooth transition. It is possible that conservatives would try to strengthen their influence.
4) Policy changes – In terms of policy, significant changes are unlikely to occur, particularly in the short run, as Acting President Mokhber has a strong affiliation with Raisi.
5) Foreign policy-Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian worked well together and made Iran’s foreign policy more confrontational. Iran saw their efforts as successful in challenging the West. After the president’s death, there might be a pause in this approach.
Since Iran’s power structure remains unchanged, international actors, both allies and adversaries, are unlikely to alter their interactions with the country in a significant way.Raisi’s passing isn’t viewed as a political crisis in Iran but rather as a tragic event that the country can manage effectively.
Question for practice
What is the impact of sudden death of President on Iranian politics?
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