Delimitation after 2027, Redrawing Power in India

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS paper2- Polity- issues and challenges pertaining to the federal structure.

Introduction

Delimitation is the constitutional process of adjusting electoral boundaries according to population change. Although routine in principle, the delimitation due after Census 2027 will be the most decisive redistribution of political power since Independence. It will determine Lok Sabha seat allocation, influence women’s reservation, reshape coalition politics, and raise difficult questions on fairness, federalism, and democratic balance among Indian States.

What is Delimitation?

Delimitation refers to the process of redrawing the boundaries of electoral constituencies to ensure fair representation based on population changes.

Delimitation Commission:

• The Delimitation Commission is a statutory body responsible for determining the boundaries of various constituencies in the country for the purpose of elections.
• It is governed by the Delimitation Act, 2002 and is conducted by the Delimitation Commission under Articles 82and 170 of the Indian Constitution.
• The objective is to provide equitable representation to all regions while maintaining the principle of one person, one vote.

Freeze on seat redistribution since 1976:

• Inter-State distribution of Lok Sabha seats has remained unchanged since 1976, based on the 1971 Census. The freeze was introduced to prevent States that adopted population control measures from losing political representation.
• Extension through the 84th Constitutional Amendment: In 2001, the freeze was extended until the first Census conducted after 2026.
• Present representational mismatch: India’s parliamentary representation still reflects a population of 548 million, while the actual population has crossed 1.47 billion.

Why the Upcoming Delimitation Is Unprecedented

1. End of constitutional suspension: With Census 2027, the legal protection against seat redistribution expires, making delimitation unavoidable.
2. First inter-State redistribution since 1976:

• The next Delimitation Commission will reallocate Lok Sabha seats among States after nearly five decades.
• Complete redrawing of constituencies: Unlike the 2002–08 exercise, all parliamentary constituencies will be redrawn, not merely internal boundaries.
• Integration of women’s reservation: The Commission must also create reserved constituencies for the 33% women’s quota.

3. Delay in execution:

• Even if Census data is released in 2028, delimitation before 2031–32 appears unlikely.
• Impact on women’s reservation rollout: Due to these delays, women’s reservation may not be implemented before the 2034 general election.

What are the concerns associated with Delimitation Exercise?

1. Population vs. Development- Southern states argue that delimitation based solely on population would penalize them for Try successful family planning and economic development. E.g.Tamil Nadu’s fertility rate is 1.6, while Bihar’s is 3.0.
2. Federalism at Risk- States with low population growth may feel politically marginalized, leading to North-South divide concerns. There are concerns that the Delimitation Exercise can create federal Imbalance as states with better governance may feel punished for controlling population. E.g. Sarkaria Commission (1983) warned against excessive centralization of power.
3. Manipulation- There are concerns that political parties may influence constituency boundaries for electoral gains. E.g.Allegations of bias in the J&K delimitation process (2022).
4. Delays and Political Resistance- There are instances of increased political resistance as seen in the case of Justice Kuldip Singh-led Commission (2002) facing pushback from political parties unwilling to lose seats.
5. Economic Disparities- Southern states argue that higher revenue generation (GST collections, per capita income) should be factored into representation.
6. Moral Contradiction: The exercise conflicts with decades of national policy that promoted population control, as States following the policy now risk political loss.
7. Constitutional Uncertainty: Extending the seat freeze or modifying redistribution may invite legal challenges because unequal representation undermines the principle of equal suffrage under Article 14.
8. Reservation Concerns: While the number of SC and ST seats follows population share, the choice of constituency locations depends on Commission discretion.

Possible Approaches and Reform Options

1. Extend the freeze beyond 2026: The current freeze on inter-State seat redistribution may be extended until fertility rates across States converge. This protects the existing political balance but denies fair representation to fast-growing States and may face constitutional challenge under Article 14 due to unequal suffrage.
2. Expand the size of the Lok Sabha: The Lok Sabha may be expanded from 543 to around 750 or 888 seats so that no State loses its existing seats. However, population-based allocation would still give larger States a much bigger share, leaving southern concerns unresolved.
3. Adopt a weighted population–development formula: Seat allocation could follow a composite formula giving 70–80% weight to population and 20–30% weight to development indicators such as literacy, health, and fertility control. This approach rewards governance outcomes instead of population growth alone.
4. Strengthen the Rajya Sabha as a federal chamber: The Rajya Sabha’s federal role can be restored by reintroducing domicile requirements and reforming seat distribution. A tier-based system with equal seats within large, medium, and small State groups can reduce population dominance and balance federal power.
5. Bifurcate Uttar Pradesh to reduce concentration of power: Uttar Pradesh may be divided into three or four States to prevent excessive political dominance. If its projected 151 Lok Sabha seats are distributed among smaller States, no single State would command disproportionate influence.
6. Implement phased redistribution of seats: Seat reallocation may be carried out in two stages, with half implemented in 2034 and the remainder in 2039. This gradual approach reduces political shock while still complying with constitutional requirements.

Conclusion

Delimitation after 2027 will redefine India’s political balance for decades. The challenge lies in reconciling population-based equality with governance fairness and federal stability. Transparent procedures, expert participation, and political consensus are essential. If guided by justice and dialogue, delimitation can strengthen democracy; if driven by numbers alone, it risks deepening regional distrust.

Question for practice:

Discuss how the delimitation exercise due after Census 2027 is likely to reshape political representation in India, and examine the constitutional, federal, and governance-related concerns associated with it.

Source: The Hindu