Evaluating India- China Disengagement agreement on Pongong Tso

Synopsis: India-China disengagement process on the border is ongoing. There is a need for the cost-benefit analysis of this disengagement process.

Background:

• Recently, both India and China have announced the start of disengagement between the two armies in Ladakh.
• The current disengagement is limited to two places on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh:
  • One, the north bank of Pangong lake
  • Two, Kailash range to the south of Pangong.
• However, the disengagement in other regions is yet to be taken. The other three sites of contention on the Ladakh border are Depsang, Gogra-Hot Springs, and Demchok.

Why the disengagement from the north bank of Pangong lake prioritized?

1. First, nearly a quarter of all the Chinese transgressions on the LAC between 2014 and 2019 have taken place on the north bank of Pangong lake.
2. Second, the north bank of Pan gong lake is a famous tourist spot. For example, the Hindi film 3 idiots were shot here.
3. Third, the decision seems to be a political priority. There are habitations close to the north bank and any Chinese ingression can be easily sighted from here. Any report of Chinese encroachment will bring embarrassment to the center.

Is the disengagement from the Kailash range a good move?

1. Kailash range was the only place where the Indian military had leverage against the Chinese army. The Chinese army was insisting on disengagement from this area first.
2. Initially, India was pushing for a simultaneous resolution of all the flashpoints on the Ladakh border. However, It did not happen.
3. Disengagement seems to be the right step. However, giving away the only leverage (Kailash range) that India had, along the LAC, needs to be debated.

What is the significance of Depsang plains?

Depsang plains situated in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector. It is a strategically important place for India because of the following reasons;

1. One, its proximity to the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road, the DBO airstrip, and the Karakoram Pass.
2. Two, it poses threats to Indian control over the Siachen glacier.
3. Three, it is the only area on the Indian landmass where China and Pakistan can plan a collusive military attack on India.
4. Fourth, also, a former northern army commander identified this area as tough to defend in case of a Chinese military attack.

Thus, Depsang plains are strategically significant. India needs to find a holistic solution to Depsang issue.

How effective is the solution of creating a buffer zone?

The creation of Buffer zones has been effective to date in controlling the India-Chinese clashes around the LAC. But there are some issues,

1. First, it denies India, access to the areas up to PP14, which it patrolled earlier.
2. Second, there are worries that such buffer zones would lie majorly on the Indian side of the LAC. Thus converting Indian-controlled territory into a neutral zone.
3. Third, no petrol zones are not announced publicly yet, in all the contentious border areas along LAC. For example, Kailash range. Any violation may result in a Galwan like clash.

Thus, buffer zones can only provide a temporary solution. They are no alternatives to the mutual delineation and a final settlement of the Sino-Indian boundary.

Suggestions for India

• The  Centre for Policy Research produced a Non-alignment 2.0 strategy in 2012. It advocates for taking a prompt quid pro quo military operation in Chinese territory in case of escalation.
• However, this strategy may result in a military confrontation. Considering India’s economic crisis, India won’t pursue a quid pro quo strategy.
• Rather, India should enhance the deployment of troops along the LAC. It will prevent PLA ingression from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh.

The government has made a choice to seek restoration of peace and tranquillity on the LAC instead of a reversion to the status quo as of April 2020. Any strategic consequences of that choice should be managed by the government in the future.