Explained: Why cyclones hit the east coast in October, and how they are predicted

Explained: Why cyclones hit the east coast in October, and how they are predicted

News:

1. The article talks about the hurdles the scientists face in accurately predicting the cyclones along with conditions in Bay of Bengal.

Important Facts:

2. Recently cyclone Titli became the third major cyclone to hit the Odisha-Andhra coastal zone in the last five years, all in October.

3. Cyclone Titli struck in same month as Phailin and Hudhud, but still the forecasting department failed to notice its arrival.

4. Reasons for poor forecasting:

• Poor data gathering technique: India have to rely on satellite images that reveals little data on moisture content and intensity to predict the developing cyclones over Indian ocean were as US has dedicated aircraft in the Atlantic basin, which fly directly into the clouds to study moisture levels and gather various data on cyclone profile.

Indian scientists get a more detailed picture only when a cyclone is 300-400 km from the coast, which reduces preparation time.

• Lack of budgetary support: India acquires storm prediction models from the US and Europe but lacks the resources to upgrade the models regularly.
• Cyclone Titli was additionally hard to read because it turned into a recurving cyclone (it changed direction.

5. Season and frequency of cyclones in Bay of Bengal:

• The Bay of Bengal receives the remnants of major landfalls in the Philippines, China and South Asia.
• From these places come low-pressure systems that develop into a monsoon depression or a cyclone in Bay of Bengal.
• This is because it is adjacent to the northwest Pacific, which is one of the world’s most active basins for typhoons.
• The cyclones such as Titli, Phailin (2013) and Hudhud (2014) typically strike in October because of wind shear.
• Low wind shear, when combined with surface sea temperatures greater than 26°C, raises the likelihood of cyclones.

6. Evacuation during cyclones:

• Researchers classify evacuation exercises as preventive, vertical, and shelter-in-place.
• Preventive (or horizontal) evacuation: The impact area is completely evacuated, but this is a measure rarely taken in India because of poor roads and inadequate public transportation. Also, poor people rarely have the resources to find alternative accommodation.
• Vertical evacuation: Here people are directed to specially designed buildings within the impact area. This strategy was largely followed during Cyclone Titli.
• Shelter-in-place evacuation: It involves fortification of existing houses and community buildings, which require financial resources.

7. Storm surge and saving lives:

• During Titli, Hudhud or Phailin, lives were saved because, unlike the 1999 Super Cyclone, there was no storm surge.