Fragmenting world order, untied nations

News: The Russian war on Ukraine is going on and it has become three weeks long conflict. Therefore, it is going to have various consequences:

Consequences of Russia Ukraine war

The global order has broken down: The Ukraine crisis is a bigger blow to the post-World War order than any other conflict such as the US Iraq Invasion in 2003, Israel’s bombing of Lebanon in 2006, and the Saudi coalition’s attacks of Yemen in 2015. It violates every line of the UN Charter preamble. It has exposed the ineffectiveness of the UN system. For example, An UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution that decried Moscow’s actions, was brushed off. Also, UNSC proved ineffective in even condemning Russian aggression.

Emergence of Alternative trading arrangements and Non-Dollar System: Russia can explore alternative trading arrangements with countries such as China, India, and much of Eastern Hemisphere. For example, New Delhi used a rupee-rouble mechanism and banks that were immunised from the U.S.’s CAATSA sanctions (or Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) for advance payments in the S-400 missile defence deal. There is a possibility that Russian banks can now use the Chinese “UnionPay” for online transactions. Gradually, the world may see a “non-dollar” system emerging which would run banking, fintech, and credit systems separately from the “dollar world”.

Nuclear safeguards have been withered: The nuclear non-proliferation regime’s credibility has been challenged, for example, Ukraine & Libya willingly gave up nuclear programmes. In fact, in this conflict, Ukrainian Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant and the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant are being attacked by the Russian military. On the other hand, Iran and North Korea could defy the global order because they have held on to their nuclear deterrents.

Rise in the role of non-state actors: For example, Pro-Russia armed militia are operating in the Donbas regions. Also, the Ukrainian President, has invited all foreign fighters to voluntarily fight from the Ukrainian Side. It reminds us “International Brigades” in the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s, comprising foreign volunteers from about 50 countries.

Cultural isolation of Russia: The Western countries have imposed a comprehensive boycott of Russia. Russia is going to be socially and culturally isolated. For example, Russian-owned, Russian-controlled or Russian-registered planes have been banned from EU airspace. The Russian channels have been banned in Europe. Such an “isolation” extends to art and music. Therefore, it brings to memory Churchill’s famous speech, “The Sinews of Peace”, when he first referred to the “Iron curtain coming down” between Soviet Russia and Western Europe.

Source; The post is based on an article “Fragmenting world order, untied nations” published in the Hindu on 15^th March 2022