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According
to a recent study titled “Future Projections of Heat Waves over India from
CMIP5 Models”, frequency of heat waves and their duration in India might
increase from early 2020. The study has been conducted by Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology (IITM). It has been published in the journal Climate Dynamics.
The study examined nine climate models to
understand how the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in India
will increase. The models used in the study identified 54 heat-wave events in
India between 1961 and 2005. The study predicts that this number is likely to increase
with the probability of 138 heat-wave events between 2020 and 2064.
The study has noted that El Nino Modoki could be
responsible for the increase in heat waves in India. Further, depletion of soil
moisture and transfer of heat from the earth to the atmosphere would also
trigger them.
A heat wave is a period of abnormally high
temperatures-more than the normal maximum temperature that occurs during the
summer season. Heat wave is considered if maximum temperature of a station
reaches at least 40°C or more for Plains, 37°C or more for coastal stations and
at least 30°C or more for Hilly regions.
El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere
phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. Modoki is a Japanese word that means “same,
but different”.
The El Nino Modoki was named to represent the
phenomenon in 2004 that had a maximum Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in
the central tropical Pacific, differing from the conventional El Nino. Modoki
results in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western
tropical Pacific
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