Hotspot Minsk – Russia’s likely delivery of tactical nukes to Belarus will set a dangerous, destabilising global precedent

Source: The post is based on the article “Hotspot Minsk – Russia’s likely delivery of tactical nukes to Belarus will set a dangerous, destabilising global precedent” published in The Times of India on 16th June 2023

Syllabus: GS 2 – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

Relevance: About Russia – Belarus nuclear deal.

News: Belarus will be taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear warheads soon. This represents a serious blow to the nuclear non-proliferation regime.

About Russia – Belarus nuclear deal

It was announced in March against the backdrop of the Ukraine war. Belarus has served as a launchpad for Russian troops. Hence, both nations signed a deal to transfer the nukes.

Both nations said that the move is in response to growing Western “threats” and might lead to the deployment of US nuclear weapons across Nato bases in Europe since the 1950s.

About US nuclear warheads in Europe

The US nuclear warheads in countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey are kept in vaults with the US keeping the Permissive Action Link codes to arm them. Now, these deployments are considered a legacy of the Cold War and represent no change in the security posture of the host nations.

What are the challenges in Russia – Belarus deal for the globe?

a) Though Russia said it will retain control of the deployed nukes, there is no guarantee, b) Belarus is an autocratic state. So, the state wouldn’t hesitate to use the nukes in case of aggression against it, c) The transfer is taking place when Russia and Belarus are active participants in an ongoing war. This has the potential to create catastrophic consequences for the world. For instance, the US including Taiwan under its nuclear umbrella or stationing nukes in Taiwan could dramatically change security equations in East Asia.

What should be done?

The world should preserve the post-Cold War nuclear arms control architecture. India and China, which already disapproved the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, should ask Russia to stop the transfer of nukes.