Impact of recent shift in US-Russia relations

Source: The post Impact of recent shift in US-Russia relations has been created, based on the article “In Ukraine tragedy, a lesson on big powers: Proxies always end up as doormats of history” published in “Indian Express” on 24th February 2025.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2- International Relations-Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context:  The article discusses the recent shift in US-Russia relations. The US is changing its approach, prioritizing global strategy over Europe. Ukraine is suffering due to its role as a proxy. India should rethink its strategic approach and avoid dependence on external powers.

For detailed information on Trump’s policies create divisions between US and Europe read this article here

Why is the US-Russia relationship changing?

1. Major Diplomatic Shift: The Lavrov-Rubio meeting in Riyadh signaled a reset in US-Russia relations, ending years of rising tensions.
2. US Strategic Shift: The US is adjusting its global priorities, moving away from the long-standing policy of isolating Russia and instead focusing on China.
3. Trump’s Vision for American Power: President Trump emphasized strengthening American power through a mix of domestic and international policies. His campaign outlined this clearly, and implementation has begun.
4. Russia’s Long-Term Strategy: President Putin managed the Ukraine conflict with patience, aiming to preserve Russia’s great power status, even as the weakest among major players.
5. Ukraine Conflict Stalemate: After three years of war, Russia has gained leverage. Washington now accepts that the conflict can only end in Russia’s favor.
6. European Weakness & US Priorities: Europe, especially NATO, has been unable to maintain strategic coherence. European NATO has become a burden on American global strategy.
7. Global Energy & Economic Interests: The US-Russia engagement can help create a more dynamic global energy and technology market, benefiting countries like India.

What has been the impact of this change?

1. Impact on Ukraine: Ukraine has suffered greatly as a proxy in the US-Russia conflict, with severe losses in territory and generational damage, as the US shifts its focus from Europe to global strategies against China.
2. Shift in European Strategy: Europe’s strategic unity is weakening, evidenced by internal NATO conflicts and reduced US support. This shift leaves Europe vulnerable and less coherent in global politics.
3. Opportunities for India: The evolving US-Russia relations could benefit India by creating a more balanced Eurasian geopolitical environment and enhancing global markets in energy and technology.

What lessons should India learn?

1. Reassess Strategic Alliances: India should reconsider its strategic alliances, noting how Ukraine’s dependence on the US and Europe led to significant losses and a precarious future. This underlines the risks of being a proxy in larger geopolitical conflicts.
2. Pursue Balanced Geopolitics: The US’s realignment in its global strategy emphasizes the need for India to seek a balanced approach in Eurasia. This will help India capitalize on shifts in global energy and technology markets.
3. Avoid Reliance on External Powers: India must avoid over-reliance on foreign powers for military and strategic needs, learning from Ukraine’s situation and Europe’s challenges with NATO.

Question for practice:

Examine how the recent shift in US-Russia relations impacts global geopolitics and what strategic lessons India can learn from it.