In centenary backdrop, this is no hand of peace

Source: The Hindu

Relevance: There were many reasons behind China’s unprovoked misadventure in Galwan valley.

Synopsis: China is celebrating the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Communist Party of China (CPC), but an atmosphere of unpredictability still prevails.

Background:

• Memories of the bloodiest clash in recent decades that occurred in the Galwan are still vivid in India’s memory.
• After some progress in talks over troop disengagement in the vicinity of Pangong Tso Lake and the Kailash ranges, matters have since reached a stalemate.
• Meanwhile, China is reportedly raising new militia units comprising local Tibetan youth, to be deployed in Eastern Ladakh.
• China’s misadventure in Ladakh exposed certain shortfalls with regard to the mechanization of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

However, blame for such miscalculations is being attributed to Mr. Xi as he has concentrated power in his hands.

Why could be the possible reason for the rise in misadventure from China’s side?

• Firstly, in past also China acted in a similar erratic manner.
  • In the late 1950s and 1960s China faced the worst famines due to the misadventure of the Great Leap Forward Movement. It put Mao Tse Tung/Mao Zedong in a difficult situation.
  • Rather than accepting his mistake, he embarked on his campaign to attack India.
  • Mao’s actions were intended to divert attention and to counter those who were critical of Mao’s autocratic attitude within CPC.
  • Another instance of this kind is Deng Xiaoping’s behaviour following the Tiananmen Square movement in the 1980s.
• Secondly, China’s recent behaviour is due to growing inner-party criticism of Mr. Xi’s policies and actions.
  • For instance, The Ladakh adventure was a misguided attempt by Mr. Xi to demonstrate to his opponents within the CPC that he is well and truly in command.
  • The CPC is a monolith entity, however, deep fissures exist within the party.
• Thirdly, the accumulation of problems does produce in closed societies (such as China) a ‘pressure cooker’ syndrome, where the safety valve is often in the hands of the leadership.
  • However, the extent of inner-party tensions is little known to the world outside, given the opacity of Chinese society.
• Fourth, the Chinese president is a leader in a hurry.
  • He is seen as Mao’s clone; he seeks to achieve the same kind of dominance over the CPC as the latter.
  • He has attempted to accelerate the pace at which China expects to overtake the U.S. as the world’s number one superpower, which, however, seems to be stalling for a variety of reasons.
  • Also, the Chinese leadership is concerned as the world is seemingly tilting towards India at this juncture, regarding it as more sophisticated, diplomatically, and more flexible compared to China.
• Lastly, apart from this, several of Mr. Xi’s other ideas have run into difficulties.
  • His plans to remake the global order on terms favourable to the CPC seem to have gone awry.
  • The Chinese economy is showing signs of slowing down.
  • Xi had been betting on technological prowess and economic heft to achieve the kind of geo-political transformation, but this is clearly not happening at present.

Hence, India should expect, and prepare for more clashes with many more provocations coming from China. Also, before any reset in relations, an answer needs to be found out as why without any provocation China attacked Indian soldiers.