“The sail that Indian diplomacy, statecraft need” – The Hindu – 11th Jan 22

Significance of focussing on maritime security

Maritime security is important to keep sea lanes open for trade, commerce, and freedom of navigation.

It will aid in resisting Chinese territorial aggrandizement in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

It will also help littoral states resist Chinese bullying tactics in interstate relations.

Steps taken by India to boost its maritime security

More recently, India has taken many ambitious steps to correct the historic neglect of India’s maritime power and also as a response to the dramatic rise of China as a military power. For instance,

-National Maritime Strategy,

-Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) initiative for the Indian Ocean Region

-Initiatives relating to the Indo-Pacific and the Quad.

Why a continental strategy focussed on Eurasia is also needed along with a maritime strategy?

Maritime security alone is not sufficient for India to deter Chinese unilateral actions and the emergence of a unipolar Asia.

Because China’s rise is not merely in the maritime domain. It is expanding on the Eurasian continent. For example, Belt and Road Initiative projects in Central Asia and its dependency-creating investments, cyber and digital penetration across the Eurasian continent.

Hence, a continental strategy focusing on the Eurasian continent is necessary for India.

“The sail that Indian diplomacy, statecraft need” – The Hindu – 11th Jan 22

For India’s continental strategy, the Central Asian region is an indispensable link as India is faced with Border and connectivity issues. For example,

A persistent two-front threat from Pakistan and China.

Increased militarization of the borders with Pakistan and China

India has been subject for over five decades to a land embargo by Pakistan

Difficulties have arisen in operationalizing an alternative route through the International North-South Transport Corridor on account of the U.S.’s hostile attitude towards Iran

With the recent Afghan developments, India’s physical connectivity challenges with Eurasia have worsened.

“India’s ‘return’ to Central Asia” – The Hindu – 7th Feb 22

Factors behind India’s increased focus on Central Asia

– Decline of US presence: US withdrawal from Afghanistan led to the reassertion by China and Russia to fill the vacuum in the region. While China is a geo-economic power, Russia dominates through its politico-military power in the region. In the end geo-economic force, i.e. China, will dominate the region.

Thus, Russia will seek India’s help to handle the increasing Chinese influence in its backyard and India will find Russia useful in getting out of nutcracker situation i.e. a possible China-Pakistan- Taliban nexus.

– Entry in Afghanistan: Unlike previous regimes in Afghanistan, Taliban is not friendly towards India, thus Central Asian Region (CAR) and Russia will be helpful in engagement with Taliban. For instance, Tajikistan holds immense geopolitical significance for India due to its location bordering Afghanistan and close geographical proximity to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

“India’s ‘return’ to Central Asia” – The Hindu – 7th Feb 22

– China shares a land border with the region, and it is also a major investor there.

– Iran is the only viable option for India to reach CAR countries i.e. via sea to Chabahar and then by road/rail through Iran (and Afghanistan) to the CARs. However, India-Iran relations will depend upon the result of Iran nuclear deal. If it is successful, Iran will come closer to western countries and away from China.

“At the Centre: On India-Central Asia summit” – The Hindu – 29th Jan 22

Lack of access to land routes: With Pakistan denying India transit trade, India is forced to explore other options. But these options have certain challenges. For instance,

a) Chabahar port initiative: It involves greater investment in rail and road routes to Iran’s northern boundaries with the CARs, something India is hesitant to do in the face of U.S. sanctions.

b) International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC): This is not fully operational and at least two CARs (Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) are not members of INSTC.

Low trade volume between India and Central Asia: A paltry $2 billion, spent mostly on Kazakhstan’s energy exports to India. In comparison, China’s CAR trade figures have exceeded $41 billion — they could double by 2030 — apart from the billions of dollars invested in the Belt and Road Initiative.

The situation in Afghanistan: It is a weak link between Central Asia and South Asia. After the Taliban takeover, there is no official government, a humanitarian crisis is building, and there are worries of terrorism and radicalism spilling over its boundaries.

Apart from that, India – CARs relations are also hampered by other players in the region. For instance, 1) Pakistan has signed transit trade agreements with CARs, offering trade access to the Indian Ocean at Gwadar and Karachi, 2) China is now the biggest development and infrastructure partner to the CAR countries, 3) Russia is one of the most strategic players in the CAR Region.

Steps that can be taken

“India’s ‘return’ to Central Asia” – The Hindu – 7th Feb 22

Increasing collaboration with Russia: Russia is close to China, CAR and becoming close to Pakistan. Thus India can work on creating rift between and China and Russia and get closer to CAR by engaging with Russia.

– Both India and the CARs use Russian defence equipment. Informal discussions explored the possibility of joint Indo-Russian defence production in some of the existing Soviet-era defence facilities in the CARs to meet local and Indian demands.

– Discussions are also taking place for potential trilateral defence exercises among India, Russia and the CARs.

“At the Centre: On India-Central Asia summit” – The Hindu – 29th Jan 22

India should institutionalise exchanges and increase the trade, investment and development partnerships with the CARs.

India should take active steps to make future ties more closely resemble the deep ties of the past.

“The sail that Indian diplomacy, statecraft need” – The Hindu – 11th Jan 22

India needs to acquire strategic vision and deploy the necessary resources to pursue our continental interests without ignoring our interests in the maritime domain.

Further, India should push for our continental rights, namely that of transit and access, working with our partners in Central Asia, with Iran and Russia.

Need for more proactive engagement with economic and security agendas ranging from the SCO, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Stabilising Afghanistan is also necessary.

India will need to define its own parameters of continental and maritime security consistent with its own interests.

Steps taken so far

The sail that Indian diplomacy, statecraft need” – The Hindu – 11th Jan 22

In 2015, Mr. Modi visited all the five Central Asian states.

Recently, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar also hosted their Central Asian counterparts in Delhi.