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India – Central Asia Relations
Central Asian Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) form a part of India’s extended neighbourhood. India has had several millennia old historical, cultural and civilizational links to the region.
Central Asia’s location at the heart of Eurasia, its geographical proximity, and historic linkages, make the region highly relevant to India’s strategic interests.
In this context, India’s decision to hosts the five Central Asia leaders at the Republic Day Parade holds significance for India’s continental security.
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Moreover, in the past few months, 1st India-Central Asia Summit, the India-Central Asia Dialogue, and the Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan have been orgnanised.
India’s Central Asia mission reflects response to the new geopolitical realities in the region.
Section updated on 7th Feb 22
Why India needs to strike the right balance between continental and maritime security? – last updated on 11th Jan 22
“The sail that Indian diplomacy, statecraft need” – The Hindu – 11th Jan 22
Significance of focussing on maritime security
Maritime security is important to keep sea lanes open for trade, commerce, and freedom of navigation.
It will aid in resisting Chinese territorial aggrandizement in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
It will also help littoral states resist Chinese bullying tactics in interstate relations.
Steps taken by India to boost its maritime security
More recently, India has taken many ambitious steps to correct the historic neglect of India’s maritime power and also as a response to the dramatic rise of China as a military power. For instance,
-National Maritime Strategy,
-Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) initiative for the Indian Ocean Region
-Initiatives relating to the Indo-Pacific and the Quad.
Why a continental strategy focussed on Eurasia is also needed along with a maritime strategy?
Maritime security alone is not sufficient for India to deter Chinese unilateral actions and the emergence of a unipolar Asia.
Because China’s rise is not merely in the maritime domain. It is expanding on the Eurasian continent. For example, Belt and Road Initiative projects in Central Asia and its dependency-creating investments, cyber and digital penetration across the Eurasian continent.
Hence, a continental strategy focusing on the Eurasian continent is necessary for India.
Why India’s continental strategy needs to focus on Eurasia? – last updated on 11th Jan 22
“The sail that Indian diplomacy, statecraft need” – The Hindu – 11th Jan 22
For India’s continental strategy, the Central Asian region is an indispensable link as India is faced with Border and connectivity issues. For example,
A persistent two-front threat from Pakistan and China.
Increased militarization of the borders with Pakistan and China
India has been subject for over five decades to a land embargo by Pakistan
Difficulties have arisen in operationalizing an alternative route through the International North-South Transport Corridor on account of the U.S.’s hostile attitude towards Iran
With the recent Afghan developments, India’s physical connectivity challenges with Eurasia have worsened.
“India’s ‘return’ to Central Asia” – The Hindu – 7th Feb 22
Factors behind India’s increased focus on Central Asia
– Decline of US presence: US withdrawal from Afghanistan led to the reassertion by China and Russia to fill the vacuum in the region. While China is a geo-economic power, Russia dominates through its politico-military power in the region. In the end geo-economic force, i.e. China, will dominate the region.
Thus, Russia will seek India’s help to handle the increasing Chinese influence in its backyard and India will find Russia useful in getting out of nutcracker situation i.e. a possible China-Pakistan- Taliban nexus.
– Entry in Afghanistan: Unlike previous regimes in Afghanistan, Taliban is not friendly towards India, thus Central Asian Region (CAR) and Russia will be helpful in engagement with Taliban. For instance, Tajikistan holds immense geopolitical significance for India due to its location bordering Afghanistan and close geographical proximity to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
What are the challenges in India-Central Asia relations? – last updated on 7th Feb 22
“India’s ‘return’ to Central Asia” – The Hindu – 7th Feb 22
– China shares a land border with the region, and it is also a major investor there.
– Iran is the only viable option for India to reach CAR countries i.e. via sea to Chabahar and then by road/rail through Iran (and Afghanistan) to the CARs. However, India-Iran relations will depend upon the result of Iran nuclear deal. If it is successful, Iran will come closer to western countries and away from China.
“At the Centre: On India-Central Asia summit” – The Hindu – 29th Jan 22
Lack of access to land routes: With Pakistan denying India transit trade, India is forced to explore other options. But these options have certain challenges. For instance,
a) Chabahar port initiative: It involves greater investment in rail and road routes to Iran’s northern boundaries with the CARs, something India is hesitant to do in the face of U.S. sanctions.
b) International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC): This is not fully operational and at least two CARs (Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) are not members of INSTC.
Low trade volume between India and Central Asia: A paltry $2 billion, spent mostly on Kazakhstan’s energy exports to India. In comparison, China’s CAR trade figures have exceeded $41 billion — they could double by 2030 — apart from the billions of dollars invested in the Belt and Road Initiative.
The situation in Afghanistan: It is a weak link between Central Asia and South Asia. After the Taliban takeover, there is no official government, a humanitarian crisis is building, and there are worries of terrorism and radicalism spilling over its boundaries.
Apart from that, India – CARs relations are also hampered by other players in the region. For instance, 1) Pakistan has signed transit trade agreements with CARs, offering trade access to the Indian Ocean at Gwadar and Karachi, 2) China is now the biggest development and infrastructure partner to the CAR countries, 3) Russia is one of the most strategic players in the CAR Region.
What steps can be taken to bolster India-Central Asia relations? – last updated on 7th Feb 22
Steps that can be taken
“India’s ‘return’ to Central Asia” – The Hindu – 7th Feb 22
Increasing collaboration with Russia: Russia is close to China, CAR and becoming close to Pakistan. Thus India can work on creating rift between and China and Russia and get closer to CAR by engaging with Russia.
– Both India and the CARs use Russian defence equipment. Informal discussions explored the possibility of joint Indo-Russian defence production in some of the existing Soviet-era defence facilities in the CARs to meet local and Indian demands.
– Discussions are also taking place for potential trilateral defence exercises among India, Russia and the CARs.
“At the Centre: On India-Central Asia summit” – The Hindu – 29th Jan 22
India should institutionalise exchanges and increase the trade, investment and development partnerships with the CARs.
India should take active steps to make future ties more closely resemble the deep ties of the past.
“The sail that Indian diplomacy, statecraft need” – The Hindu – 11th Jan 22
India needs to acquire strategic vision and deploy the necessary resources to pursue our continental interests without ignoring our interests in the maritime domain.
Further, India should push for our continental rights, namely that of transit and access, working with our partners in Central Asia, with Iran and Russia.
Need for more proactive engagement with economic and security agendas ranging from the SCO, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Stabilising Afghanistan is also necessary.
India will need to define its own parameters of continental and maritime security consistent with its own interests.
Steps taken so far
The sail that Indian diplomacy, statecraft need” – The Hindu – 11th Jan 22
In 2015, Mr. Modi visited all the five Central Asian states.
Recently, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar also hosted their Central Asian counterparts in Delhi.
