India as ‘developed country’ by 2047: Attainable goal, or chimera?

Source- The post is based on the article “India as ‘developed country’ by 2047: Attainable goal, or chimera?” published in the “Business Standard” on 27th May 2023.

Syllabus: GS3- Growth and development

Relevance- Development prospects of India

News– The Narendra Modi government has set before the country the goal of attaining “developed country” status by 2047.

What are prospects for India to achieve the status of developed country by 2047?

Various development indicators exist. These are income level, health and education standards, quality of life, availability of work, levels of poverty and inequality, technological attainments.

India is well short of the required levels on such indicators. So the goal set for the next quarter-century is ambitious.

The per capita income of the country should grow more than five-fold in 24 years. It calls for annual growth of 7%. Indeed, very few countries have sustained such rapid growth for a long stretch. On a realistic assessment, India will not be “high-income” in 2047.

Getting to the “very high” human development category could be easier. The pace at which the country has improved its score on the human development index over the last quarter-century is impressive.

Sustaining that rate should help India improve its index score from the current 0.633 to the “very high” category threshold of 0.800 by 2047.

Another indicator is the share of hi-tech items in a country’s exports of manufactured goods. India has a 10% share, about the same level as Brazil and Russia. The global average is 20% and China’s figure is 30%.

In terms of research output, India’s total has been growing rapidly. It now ranks fourth in quantity. But it is only ninth in terms of the number of citations of such research.

China’s citation level is five times higher. Much efforts are needed to achieve the level of developed-country average on such indicators.

For tracking poverty numbers in an aspirational India, the “extreme poverty” benchmark of $2.15 per day was applied when India was a low-income country. It is not appropriate for the lower-middle income country that India has become.

The benchmark for such countries is $3.65 per head per day. By that measure, hundreds of millions are poor today. The benchmark for upper-middle income countries, when India gets there, would be even higher, at $6.85 per day.

Would it be a unique thing if India achieves the status of developed country by 2047?

India would be far from unique if it did achieve “developed country” status by 2047. More than 80 countries are already classified by the World Bank as being high-income, whereas India is still lower-middle income.

More than 65 countries are ranked by the UN Development Programme as having attained “very high” levels of human development. India is still in the “medium” category.

The country also remains some distance away from eliminating multidimensional poverty. If it got there in 2047, India would be very much a late-comer.