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News: Recently, 21st India – Russia Annual summit took place. The summit highlighted the “all-weather” partnership between India and Russia.
| Must read: Recent developments in India-Russia Relations – Explained, pointwise |
1. There is little organic, people-to-people content to the relationship, 2. India-Russia bilateral trade is around U.S.$10 billion, far lower than India’s trade with China and the United States and even with the U.S.’s trade with Russia, 3. Soviet-era cultural and people-to-people contacts have almost gone.
| Read more: India-Russia summit recognised that each needs the other, and that the drift in bilateral ties needs to be arrested |
The quadrilateral dynamics among India, China, the U.S. and Russia have different implications. The author explains the dynamics through primary and secondary antagonisms.
According to the author, China-U.S. antagonism is the first order relationship and the U.S.-Russia, China-Russia and Russia-India are the second-order relationships.
The second-order relationships are, to a great extent, a product of the primary antagonism. But, the second-tier relationships also have their own unique dynamics and implications. For instance, no matter what the state of global geopolitics is, there is a regional geopolitical rivalry between India and China.
Even though China remains its primary antagonism, the US has not yet succeeded in divorcing its less challenging second-order antagonism with Russia. This complicated matters further for India.
For instance, An aggressive China will push India towards the US, not towards Russia (in the long term).
Similarly, if Russia has to choose between China and India, it would choose China. Further, China will try to isolate India in the larger Asian region as it suits China’s larger game plan.
India’s desire for a robust relationship with Russia will be more appreciated by the U.S. due to the Chinese aggression against India and the U.S.’s systemic and first-order rivalry with China.
The rise of China becomes a concern for Russia, it could potentially open conversations with the US to create a balance vis-à-vis China that suits Indian interests.
First, Russia provides more direct opportunities for India in the Central Asian Region.
With the Americans gone from Afghanistan, India can openly cooperate with Russia, Iran (especially if the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) renegotiations succeed), and engage with the Central Asian region.
Second, Cooperation in Indian Ocean Region: Russia has been expanding its influence, especially in the western Indian Ocean. So India could fulfil its significant interests in the Indian Ocean by engaging with Russia.
For achieving that, India needs a great deal of diplomatic agility to improve the relationship with Russia amidst high-stakes geopolitical contestations.
Source: This post is based on the article “Russia, a legacy relationship with limitations” published in The Hindu on 9th December 2021.
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