India’s GDP to take a big hit due to pandemic-linked learning losses for students: ADB study

What is the News?

A new working paper named ‘Potential Economic Impact of COVID-19 related School Closures’ has been published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB)

What are the key findings of the paper?

Economies with a significant population of schoolchildren and college-going youth in rural areas and in the poorest and second wealth quintile — have been worst-hit.

GDP decline will widen in future: School closures lead to declines in global GDP and employment. The report also found that the losses in global GDP and employment increase over time. For instance, declines in global GDP amount to 0.19% in 2024, 0.64% in 2028, and 1.11% in 2030.

Migration to the unskilled labour force: Learning and earning losses are significant because a notable portion of the impacted population will migrate to the unskilled labour force.

Note: According to ADB, India’s workforce is constituted of unskilled labour (408.4 million) compared to 72.65 million skilled workers.

Immediate challenge: A most immediate challenge for governments is to help students recover “lost opportunities” by conducting assessments among impacted children.

What are the findings related to India?

India has one of the longest school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The gross domestic product (GDP) of India would see the highest decline in South Asia due to learning losses for the young.

Children enrolment: The report found that India has the highest number of children enrolled in primary and secondary education among the Asian economies. The number of students in tertiary education was second only to China at 36.39 million.

Alarming forecast: India may witness a $10.5 billion dent in 2023, and the country’s economy could take a nearly $99 billion hit by 2030, translating into a 3.19% reduction in GDP from the baseline growth trends

Highest GDP decline in South Asia: In terms of absolute change, India experiences the highest GDP decline in South Asia. In percentage terms, its GDP decreases by 0.34% in 2023, 1.36% in 2026, and 3.19% in 2030.

What are the recommendations of the report?

a) Identify the learning gap and specific learning needs of individuals, b) Effective learning programs should be devised to offer appropriate support such as tutoring or special classes and help them to bridge the learning gap, c) Governments need to direct adequate funding and resources to young populations

Source: The post is based on the article “India’s GDP to take a big hit due to pandemic-linked learning losses for students: ADB study” published in The Hindu on 27th May 2022.