India’s ‘return’ to Central Asia

News: Recent development depicts India is giving due importance to the Central Asia  

In the past four months, 1st India-Central Asia Summit, the India-Central Asia Dialogue, and the Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan have been orgnanised.  

India’s Central Asia mission reflects response to the new geopolitical realities in the region.  

What are the factors behind increasing India Central Asia relations? 

Decline of US presence 

US withdrawal from Afghanistan led to the reassertion by China and Russia to fill the vacuum in the region. While China is a geo-economic power, Russia dominates through its politico-military power in the region. In the end geo-economic force i.e. China, will dominate the region. 

Thus, Russia will seek India’s help to handle the increasing Chinese influence in its backyard and India will find Russia useful in getting out of nutcracker situation i.e. a possible China-Pakistan- Taliban nexus. 

Entry in Afghanistan 

Unlike previous regimes in Afghanistan, Taliban is not friendly towards India, thus Central Asian Region (CAR) and Russia will be helpful in engagement with Taliban. For instance, Tajikistan holds immense geopolitical significance for India due to its location bordering Afghanistan and close geographical proximity to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.  

How Russia can be helpful for India in ensuring regional stability? 

India’s non-critical stance on the developments in Ukraine and Kazakhstan and President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi are indicators of growing India-Russia relations.  

First, Russia is a traditional and trustworthy partner of India.  

Second, Russia is close to China, CAR and becoming close to Pakistan. Thus India can work on creating rift between and China and Russia and get closer to CAR by engaging with Russia.  

Third, Both India and the CARs use Russian defence equipment. Informal discussions explored the possibility of joint Indo-Russian defence production in some of the existing Soviet-era defence facilities in the CARs to meet local and Indian demands.  

Fourth, discussions are also taking place for potential trilateral defence exercises among India, Russia and the CARs.  

What are challenges in front of India –Central Asia relations? 

First, China shares a land border with the region and it is also a major investor there.  

Second, Iran is the only viable option for India to reach CAR countries i.e. via sea to Chabahar and then by road/rail through Iran (and Afghanistan) to the CARs. However, India-Iran relations will depend upon the result of Iran nuclear deal. If it is successful, Iran will come closer to western countries and away from China.  

Source: This post is created based on the article “India’s ‘return’ to Central Asia” of The Hindu, published on 7th Feb. 2022.