Source: The post India’s struggle to balance ties with major global powers has been created, based on the article “US-Russia-China dynamics are a nightmare for India” published in “Live Mint” on 11th August 2025
UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2- Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
Context: India’s security environment depends heavily on the state of US–Russia–China relations. With a direct threat from China, India seeks strong ties with both the US and Russia, but shifting great-power dynamics have often complicated this goal. India struggle in international relations.
India’s Ideal Geopolitical Scenario
- Balanced Relations with Great Powers: India would benefit most if it maintained strong ties with both the US and Russia, while the two also shared amicable relations. This would allow defence partnerships with both without mutual suspicion.
- Strategic Autonomy Goal: Such a balance would ensure India’s independence in security decisions and access to advanced defence technology from both sides. However, India cannot influence US–Russia ties directly.
Cold War Choices and Lessons
- Alignment with the Soviet Union: During the Cold War, India leaned towards the Soviet Union, despite wishing to avoid alignment. This was due to geopolitical and strategic considerations.
- Mixed Outcomes: In 1962, the Soviet Union remained neutral in the India–China war to preserve ties with Beijing, disappointing New Delhi. In 1971, amid the Sino-Soviet split, Moscow signed a quasi-military alliance with India, deterring China.
- Key Insight: India learned that a great-power partner fully committed to balancing China was crucial for security.
Post-Cold War Shifts and New Threats
- Changing Global Order: After 1991, the US emerged as the sole great power. By the early 2000s, China’s rise as a military, economic, and technological giant became India’s primary threat. Russia, weakened, grew reliant on Beijing.
- India’s Strengths and Gaps: India’s growing economy and nuclear arsenal improved its security position. However, the widening power gap with China meant India still needed a strong partner to deter Chinese aggression.
India–US Strategic Partnership
- Shared Concerns over China: As China became America’s main competitor, India and the US found common ground in countering its influence, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Divergence on Russia: India valued Russia for critical defence assets, such as leasing nuclear-powered submarines, while the US viewed Russia mainly as an adversary.
Ukraine War and Strategic Disruption
- Hopes for Indo-Pacific Focus: India expected the US to shift military resources from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, enabling a favourable strategic setting for India’s security and defence cooperation with both powers.
- Shift Back to Confronting Russia: Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine derailed this possibility. While US documents still mention China, its strategy has pivoted to targeting Russia.
- Trump’s Return and India’s Dilemma: Initial hopes that Donald Trump would reorient US policy faded. By August 2025, he was punishing India for its Russia ties, leaving India with a hostile China, a weakened Russia, and an antagonistic US stance—a scenario far from ideal.
Question for practice:
Examine how shifts in US–Russia–China relations have shaped India’s strategic options since the Cold War.
