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Contents
- 1 What is Israel-Palestine Conflict?
- 2 What are the reasons for the Israel-Palestine Dispute?
- 3 What are the Global Ramifications of the Conflict?
- 4 What has been India’s position on the Israel-Palestine Conflict?
- 5 What diplomatic and political efforts can help India protect its geopolitical interests?
- 6 What will be the impact of the Israel-Palestine Conflict on India?
- 7 What should be the way forward?
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Israel-Palestine Conflict has again grabbed the international headlines. On October 7,2023, Palestinian militant organisation Hamas attacked Israel that left at least 400 people dead. The retaliatory attacks from Israel have led to the deaths of more than 300 people in the Gaza Strip as on 8th October 2023. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a “long and difficult” war. This may add another war in the long drawn history of Israel-Palestine conflict.
What is Israel-Palestine Conflict?
Israel-Palestine Conflict- The Israel-Palestine conflict is one of the world’s longest-running and most controversial conflicts. It is a conflict between two self-determination movements- the Jewish nationalist project and the Palestinian nationalist project, in the same territory.
Status of Israel and Palestine- The claims of both Jews and Arab Muslims date back to a couple of thousand years. However the current political conflict began in the early 20th century. Since then, there has been a gradual expansion of territory occupied by Israel and today Palestinians are confined to only two regions – West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Historical Timeline of Israel-Palestine Dispute
| Year | Event | Significance |
| 1897 | Start of Zionist movement and creation of World Zionist Organisation. | Zionist Movement was started by the Jewish community to escape persecution and establish their own state in their ancestral homeland, Israel.As a result, a large number of Jews started flowing into Palestine, they bought land and started settling down there. |
| 1916 | Sykes-Picot Agreement- A secret agreement between Great Britain and France was signed. | This agreement led to the division of Ottoman Turkish Empire. Palestine came under the British control after the agreement. |
| 1917 | Balfour Declaration issued by the British Government during the WW I. | British expressed official support for a Jewish “national home” in Palestine under the Balfour Declaration. |
| 1920s- 1940s | Nazi Rule and Holocaust in Germany | More and more Jews started fleeing Europe fearing persecution. The tensions grew as Palestinian Arabs opposed the relocation of Jews in the area. |
| 1947 | United Nations adopted Resolution 181 known as the Partition Plan. | A partition plan was presented for independent Jewish and Arab states in Palestine and Jerusalem as an international city . This was accepted by Jews and on May 14, 1948, the State of Israel was created. This partition plan was not accepted by Arabs. |
| 1948-1949 | First Arab Israel War | The Jewish declaration of Israel’s independence induced surrounding Arab states to attack. At the end of the war, Israel controlled around 50 percent more territory than originally envisioned in the UN partition plan. Jordan controlled the West Bank and Jerusalem’s holy sites, and Egypt controlled the Gaza Strip. Large number of Palestanian people were killed and forced to flee. This was the beginning of Palestanian refugee crisis. |
| 1964 | Formation of Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) | The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was formed as the national representative of the Palestinian people. |
| 1967 | Six day war between the Israeli forces and Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. | Israel emerged victorious in this war. After the war, Israel gained territorial control over the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip from Egypt; the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan; and the Golan Heights from Syria. |
| 1973 | Yom Kippur war between Israel and Syria and Egypt to regain their lost territories. | The war did not result in significant gains either for Egypt, Israel, or Syria. But it allowed Egypt and Syria to negotiate over previously ceded territory in the Six Day War. |
| 1979 | Camp David Accords signed between Egypt and Israel. | The peace treaty that ended the thirty-year conflict between Egypt and Israel. This accord improved relations between Israel and its neighbours. But the question of Palestinian self-determination and self-governance remained unresolved. |
| 1987 | First Intifada or First Palestanian Uprising in the regions of Gaza and West Bank. Hundreds of people were killed. | The Intifada came to an end with the Oslo Peace Accords signed in 1993 and a second accord signed in 1995. The Oslo Accords resulted in the Palestanian rights of self governance, withdrawal of Israeli forces from 6 cities and 450 towns in the West Bank and mutual recognition between the newly established Palestinian Authority and Israel’s government. |
| 2000 | Second Intifada was launched over Palestinian grievances over Israel’s control over the West Bank, a stagnating peace process, and former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s visit to the al-Aqsa mosque | In response, the Israeli government approved the construction of a barrier wall around the West Bank in 2002, despite opposition from the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. A ceasefire was finally announced and Israel planned to withdraw all troops and Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip by 2005 end. |
| 2008 | Beginning of Israel Hamas wars. Three wars were faught in 2008, 2012 and 2014. | These Israel Hamas wars are regular yearly features now. The current war is also being faught between Israel and Hamas which controls the Gaza strip. |
| *Hamas- Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. It fights for the rights of Palestinians. After the death of Yasser Arafat who headed the Fatah party in 2004, Hamas emerged stronger. In 2007, the group seized power from Fatah party in Gaza after a civil War. Since then Hamas controls Gaza strip while Fatah party rules in West Bank. Hamas has been declared as a terrorist organisation by the US, Israel, EU, Canada etc. | ||
Increasing Israel’s area under occupation- Explained through Map
Current Situation of Israel-Palestine territories
| Gaza Strip | Hamas rules over Gaza. Gaza’s borders are tightly controlled by Israel and Egypt. Gaza has been under Israeli sea and air blockade since 2007. |
| West Bank | According to the Oslo accord ,the occupied West Bank was divided into three areas – Area A(Under Palestinian control), Area B(Under Joint control) and Area C(Under Israeli control). Control of areas had to be gradually transferred from Israel to Palestine. However Israel has been construction Separation Walls, Increasing the security checkpoints and allowing illegal settlements in these areas. Israel has been increasing its hold over the West Bank. |
| Jerusalem | West Jerusalem has been Israeli territory since 1948 with Jews in the majority. East Jerusalem, which houses the Old City of Jerusalem including the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, is Palestinian majority and was occupied by Israel in 1967.The whole of Jerusalem is claimed by Israel as its capital. Palestinians claim East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state. |
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What are the reasons for the Israel-Palestine Dispute?
With the Israel-Palestine dispute again back in focus, we must look at the reasons for this dispute.
Normalisation of Relations between Israel and Arab World- Abraham Accords was signed between Israel and UAE, Bahrain in 2020. Later Sudan and Morocco joined in 2020. Saudi Arabia and Israel have also been coming together for various economic projects like IMEC. Hamas wants to disrupt this normalisation of relation between Israel and the Arab countries.
Hamas’s aim of taking leadership of Palestinian cause from the Palestinian Authority(PA)- The Palestinian Authority (PA) is the official government of the Palestinians that signed the Oslo Peace Accords with Israel but it never resulted in the promised Palestinian state. The PA today is riddled with corruption, misgovernance and has lost legitimacy. Hamas through this attack has been trying to take leadership of the Palestinian cause from the PA.
Support to Hamas operations by Hezbollah ,Iran and Qatar- Hamas is being provided logistical, technological and intelligence support by terrorist organisations like Hezbollah operating in Lebanon and funding by Iran and Qatar.
Unresolved Jerusalem Dispute- Both Israel and the Palestinians hold competing claims to the city. Israel, which occupied the formerly Jordanian-held eastern part in 1967, regards the whole of Jerusalem as its capital. The Palestinians insist on East Jerusalem as their future capital. This has resulted in Intifada like the Al-aqsa intifada.
Increasing Israeli Settlements in West Bank- Since 1967, Israel has built about 140 settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem. They are considered illegal by most of the international community, though Israel disputes this. Palestinians say all settlements must be removed for a Palestinian state to be viable.
Border Dispute- Israel and Palestine have dispute on the border. Palestinians insist on borders based on ceasefire lines which separated Israel and East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza between 1949 and 1967. However, Israel insists on an extended eastern border stretching up to the Jordan River.
No Consensus on Palestinian Statehood- No consensus has been developed over the status of Palestinian Statehood among PLO and Israeli officials. Further Israel insists that any peace deal must include Palestinian recognition of it as the “nation-state of the Jewish people”.
Political Division among Palestinians- The Palestinians remain politically divided between Fatah and Hamas, and thus are unable to negotiate jointly. Further, Israel is unwilling to negotiate with the violent group Hamas.
Lack of pursual of peace process- Both Israel and Hamas have not been following the path to achieve peace in the region. Israel has continued to build settlements in the West Bank, raising security barriers and checkpoints, limiting Palestinian movements, and never hesitating to use force or collective punishment to keep organised Palestinians under check. But the recent attacks from Hamas killing 700 Israelis does not help the Palestinian cause. It has only escalated the conflict.
What are the Global Ramifications of the Conflict?
Disrupt the geopolitical realignment Process in Middle East- Middle East in recent times has been witnessing geopolitical realignments from the Israel-Arab reconciliation to the Iran-Saudi détente. However the recent conflict will disrupt this peace and normalisation process being pursued by middle eastern countries.
Make the Middle East as theatre of War- Middle East had been a theatre of War with Wars like Gulf War, Iraq war, 6 day war. The recent conflict has potential to become a full blown war with involvement of foreign powers like US, EU. This would make the region a theatre for proxy wars like US and Iran.
Disrupt the global connectivity projects and global transport routes- The envisaged projects like India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) will be disrupted by this prolonged conflict. The escalation of the conflict would endanger the strategic supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the red sea.
Disrupt the Global supply Chains and increase Inflation- The escalation of the conflict will impact the oil production and supply of goods. This will further increase inflation which has already been rattling the world economy.
What has been India’s position on the Israel-Palestine Conflict?
India’s Position on the Israel-Palestine conflict is tabulated below-
| India’s position on Israel-Palestine conflict from 1947 to 1992 India blindly supported the Palestianian cause rooted in idealism. In 1947, India voted against the partition of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly. Also, Indian political leadership actively supported the Palestinian cause and refused to have full diplomatic relations with Israel. In 1964, India supported the formation of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). This made India the first non-Arab country to recognise PLO as the sole representative of the Palestine. In 1988, India was one of the first countries to recognize the State of Palestine . |
| India’s Policy towards the Israel-Palestine conflict after 1992 As a part of the Link West Policy, India de-hyphenated its relationship with Israel and Palestine. As part of the Policy, India started treating both countries as mutually independent and exclusive. It means India’s relationship with Israel will depend upon its own merits. Thus began a phase of independent and exclusive engagement. In 1992, India established full diplomatic ties with Israel. But at the same time, India supported the Palestinian cause. In 1993, after the Oslo Peace accord, India opened a Representative Office for it in Gaza. This office was later shifted to Ramallah in 2003. In 2011, India voted in favour of accepting Palestine as a full member of UNESCO. In 2014, India supported the UNHRC’s resolution to probe Israel’s human rights violations in Gaza. But in the next year, India abstained from voting against Israel in UNHRC. In 2017, the de-hyphenation policy enabled the first Indian PM visit to Israel in 2017 while supporting the Palestinian cause. India has maintained the image of a historical moral supporter for Palestinian self-determination. At the same time, the policy of de-hyphenation allowed India to engage in the military, economic, and other strategic relations with Israel. |
| India’s stance on the current Conflict India abstained (chose not to vote) on the Arab resolution calling for a humanitarian truce in Gaza. With it, India has underlined its concerns on international terrorism. India was right in pointing out that the Arab resolution did not condemn the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel. Additionally, India supported a Canadian resolution condemning the Hamas attack on Israel. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called the Hamas attack on Israel as “terrorist attacks” and conveyed “solidarity with Israel”. India also reiterated its continuous support for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. This signals a replacing of the traditional defensive politically correct foreign policy with a policy rooted in a hard-headed realistic assessment of the shifting regional dynamic. This conflict has put India into diplomatic tight spot. The current hostility tests the Abraham Accords and the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which held the promise of reshaping age-old fault lines in the Middle East. India was hoping to reap the dividends of the newfound peace in the region. What diplomatic and political efforts can help India protect its geopolitical interests?1) Diplomatic and political outreach to the Arab world: India should explain its commitment to Palestine’s full statehood, press Israel to respect the laws of war, and increase humanitarian assistance to Gaza. 2) Ensure all-party consensus: The government needs to invite Opposition leaders for a full briefing and explain the considerations shaping its regional policy. 3) Regulate fringe groups: India needs to crack down on the extremist groups that are spreading disinformation and undermining its strategy of interest-based realism in the Middle East. |
What will be the impact of the Israel-Palestine Conflict on India?
India through its support for Israel has chosen sides in the recent conflict. However any prolonged conflict will not augur well for India.
Impacts our De-hypenation and West Asia Policy- India had been successfully implementing its de-hyphenation policy in the region. India’s relation with both the Arab World and Israel has improved. However the current conflict puts India in a diplomatic tightspot to choose one side. India cannot afford to loose either.
Increase in Inflation- Any prolonged conflict in the Middle East will impact the oil and gas production. Inflation in the country will further increase as India is heavily dependent upon imported oil and gas.
Depreciation of the Indian Rupee- The conflict will impact the inflow of FPI and FDI in the Indian financial market. Increase in oil prices will further increase India’s Current Account Deficit(CAD). All these will lead to depreciation of the Indian rupee.
Effect on the India Israel Trade- Israel is a major defence and strategic partner of India. Involvement of Israel for a long period in the conflict will drastically reduce the trade between India- Israel. In FY23, India’s total exports to Israel stood at $8.4 billion while India’s imports from Israel were at $2.3 billion.
Reduction of the remittances from West Asia and safety of Indian emigrants- India has a large diaspora and emigrant population in West Asia. These are a source of large amount of remittance to India(~40 bn dollars). If the conflict turns into a full blown war across the middle east, India will be severely impacted. The remittances will plummet. Safe Evacuation of the Indian diaspora will also be a grave challenge.
What should be the way forward?
The recent Israel-Palestine dispute can turn into a major crisis if the global leadership does not act in time. Following methods should be adopted for early resolution of the dispute.
Adoption of the Arab Peace Initiative offer- This offer was proposed by the Saudi Arabia in the name of all Arab countries in 2002. This offer required the creation of a Palestinian state on the lands Israel occupied in the Six-Day War of 1967. In return, Israel would be fully recognised and accepted. .This offer can be the only basis for a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
Need to treat it as Israel-Arab conflict rather that Israel-Palestine(Hamas) conflict- The conflict is not only between Israel and Palestine but also with other Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Syria. All of them should participate in the negotiations and the final agreement should be recognized formally by each one of them along with UN general assembly and security council.
UNSC must step up- UNSC must broker a peace talk between the two warring fractions. Global leadership platforms must be used to not let middle east become another theatre for warfare.
Ensure proper adherence to UNSC resolution 2334- UNSC resolution 2334 concerns the Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem.The illegal Israel settlements in West Bank must be removed at the earliest.
Follow the ICC ruling of February 2021- The February 2021 International Criminal Court (ICC) ruling should be implemented in spirit. It allows the ICC to investigate persons committing war crimes in the Palestinian Territories of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
India should act as a mediator- India has good relations with both the Arab World and Israel. Instead of India choosing side in the war, it must use its soft power and diplomatic outreach to solve the dispute.
Conclusion
The world is at inflexion point today after COVID and the Ukraine-Russia war. We cannot let another war continue which will disrupt the global supply chains. The international community must try to instill peace among the two states. Further any successful peace initiative would need to resolve the four core issues that have plagued the peace process- West Bank borders/settlements, Israeli security, Palestinian refugees, and Jerusalem.
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