Keeping an eye on China’s expanding nuclear stack

Relevance: Implications of China’s expanding nuclear arsenal

Synopsis: The scope and prospective size of China’s nuclear capabilities is not known clearly. India should closely watch this build-up and work towards enhancing its own capabilities. An analysis of China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal.

Context

Satellite images from Xinjiang province in the west of the country suggest it is building a nuclear missile silo field, a recent report from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) says. The site is believed to host 110 silos.

• This development comes against the backdrop of evidence that China had already built a site with 120 silos in the arid region of Yumen, in the Gansu province.
• These events indicate that China is fielding a larger nuclear force based on fixed land-based capabilities

What is a missile silo?

It is a vertical cylindrical structure constructed underground, for the storage and launching of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The structures typically have the missile some distance below ground, protected by a large “blast door” on top. They are usually connected, physically and/or electronically, to a missile launch control center.

The missiles are stored underground to provide protection from the natural elements and from attack.

China’s nuclear arsenal

• Chinese nuclear forces stand at roughly anywhere between 250 to 350 nuclear warheads according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) as well as the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
• China’s nuclear tipped ballistic missiles forces, whether land-based or sea-based, have certainly improved in quantity and quality.
• It’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) capabilities in the form of the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) and the DF-26, respectively, are its most potent land-based missile systems.

Reasons behind current expansion by China

1. Increase the survivability of its arsenal against a first strike from their nuclear adversaries, most prominently the United States. Washington, which possesses a larger arsenal, stands at 3,800 warheads, and paired with its growing missile defence capabilities poses a threat to Chinese retaliatory nuclear forces. However, other countries too figure in China’s nuclear expansion such as Russia and India, even if Russia is not an overriding concern presently.
2. To mislead enemies: The current silo-based missile expansion being undertaken by China can also be to mislead and deceive enemies by hiding actual number of nuclear tipped warheads.
3. A credible nuclear deterrent: Land-based nuclear capabilities, like silos also mean that for its enemies China will be a country with a huge number of targets to strike. The larger the target list for any potential opponent, the greater the chances of China’s arsenal surviving a first strike, thereby boosting the credibility of China’s nuclear deterrent. In all probability, China is expanding its nuclear forces to withstand a first strike and then execute a retaliatory attack that would defeat its enemy’s missile defences.

Implications for India

The growth in China’s nuclear arsenal might not have an immediate impact on India, but its development of land-based nuclear silos in the Xinjiang province should worry decision-makers in New Delhi given the region’s proximity to India.

• On boundary disputes: It is likely to have an impact on the ongoing boundary stand-off between the two countries in Eastern Ladakh. Fixed land-based nuclear capabilities give the Chinese an advantage in consolidating their territorial gains in Depsang, Demchok and Gogra-Hotsprings. It is likely to produce a suppressive effect against any conventional military escalation.

Way forward

The strategic balance between China and India is unlikely to be altered because of the Chinese nuclear expansion, but New Delhi should keep a close eye on its neighbour and work on enhancing its own strategic capabilities.

Terms to know

• SIPRI