Lessons for India from the Taiwan standoff

Source: The post is based on the article “Lessons for India from the Taiwan standoff” published in The Hindu on 6^th August 2022.

Syllabus: GS 2 – India and its neighbourhood- relations.

Relevance: About Taiwan-China clash and lessons to improve India-China relations from it.

News: Recently, the United States House Speaker visited Taiwan against Chinese warnings. This has the potential to increase the already deteriorating relationship between the U.S. and China. Further, by conducting the recent meeting Taiwan signalled that it is unwilling to back down from its declared aims, no matter what the consequences were.

Why Taiwan is important for US and China?

Taiwan is a small island of 23 million people which has decided to stand up to one of the strongest military and economic powers on the planet(China).

China claims about a rising superpower, but this might not be true if it is unable to unify its claimed territories, in particular Taiwan.

For the U.S., it is about re-establishing steadily-diminishing American credibility in the eyes of its friends and foes.

Why are the mistakes of India’s China policy?

First, India’s policy of meeting/hosting Chinese leaders while the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continue(d) to violate established territorial norms on the LAC is a deeply flawed one.

Second, India is unilaterally avoiding Chinese sensitivities even during the standoffs between the two militaries. For instance, the parliamentary delegation visits and legislature-level dialogues between India and Taiwan have not taken place since 2017.

Third, soft-peddling of the Quad when China objected to it. It is only in the last two years or so that India has witnessed renewed enthusiasm around the Quad.

Fourth, non-acknowledgement of the PLA’s intrusion into Indian territory in 2020 standoff.  For example, ever since the standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 2020, the government has not clarified what really went on at the border in 2020 and whether China continues to be in illegal occupation of Indian territory.

What are the impacts of India’s China appeasement policy?

India’s current policy of ‘hide and seek’ vis-à-vis China amounts to poor messaging, and confuse its own people as well as the larger international community.

This provides a) China with the cover of ambiguity to pursue its territorial claims vis-à-vis India, b) Confuses India’s friends in the international community, c) Make India’s China policy counterproductive.

What lessons India should learn from the Taiwan standoff?

The growing economic and trading relationship between India and China is enough to ensure that tensions between the two sides do not escalate and that the two sides must find ways of co-existing peacefully.

India should remember that the trade deficit is in China’s favour. On the other hand, China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, and China has an annual trade deficit of around $80 billion to $130 billion with Taiwan. China is dependent on the semiconductors produced in Taiwan in a big way.

This shows that the close economic relationship with China has not stopped Taiwan from asserting its rights, nor has it backed down under Chinese threats.

India should learn the importance of articulating red lines and sovereign positions in an unambiguous manner like Taiwan. Any absence of such clarity will be cleverly utilised by China to push Indian limits. So, India for sure should do business with China, but not on China’s own terms.