Making sense of New Delhi’s Taliban rapprochement

News: Recently, India sent a senior diplomatic delegation to the Taliban-occupied Kabul. The visit was the culmination of Delhi’s months of quiet diplomacy and signaling.

India’s Foreign Policy

Just hours after the Taliban’s takeover, in 2021, India was the first country to immediately ban all Afghans traveling to India, including students and patients with a valid Indian visa.

India chose to abstain from the UN Security Council’s call on the Taliban to open girl schools. Further, India remains silent about the worsening situation in Afghanistan.

India’s apparent reorientation can be described and understood as an example of realpolitik, and supremacy of national interest.

What are India’s key strategic interests in Afghanistan?

India is facing various security concerns due to the developments in Afghanistan. There is a nexus of Islamic militancy, illicit drugs, and proxy warfare in Afghanistan. And, India is a primary target for this alliance. The Taliban aims to establish a “pure Islamic Government” in the Heart of Asia, and secure Pakistan’s “Strategic Depth”.

In addition, the Taliban also possess imperial ambition. For example, to establish Ghazwa-e-Hind, implied in Mahmud Ghaznavi’s plunder of India more than 1,000 years ago. The British also tried to topple Afghanistan’s progressive King Amanullah Khan.

In its first war against India in 1948, Pakistan mobilized a tribal army to attack India.

Pakistan has a geo-strategic vision for Afghanistan, i.e., to create a “Greater Waziristan”, to be ruled by an isolated, ruthless and dogmatic Taliban reign. This would become a major center for producing, training, and sheltering different Pakistan-sponsored terrorists. Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment is determined to maintain its monopoly on its proxies.

India wishes to capitalize on the personal grudge some Taliban commanders have against Pakistan. It aims to create an India-friendly faction within the Taliban.

What are the challenges with ‘India First policy’?

It will destroy a central pillar of India’s foreign and security policy, which refers to the dismantling of the region’s “terrorist infrastructure”.

India as a “civilizational state” and an inspiring global power cannot behave as a bandwagoning, transactional, opportunistic salesman.

India has attained the status of ideational and trustworthy partner among most of the Afghan people. They look at India as an example of a fellow developing nation that will support them. Therefore, this policy can lead to loss of the trust and goodwill of Afghans toward India.

The Way Forward

The prospects for peace and stability in Afghanistan are not feasible if Afghanistan continues to work in the direction of Pakistan. Because Pakistan itself is facing multiple internal and external challenges.

India has been seen as a sincere friend of Afghanistan, unlike many double-faced actors

Afghanistan needs a strong UN mandate, including a UN-led political transition process. The process can be supported by a UN peacekeeping / making force.

Source: The post is based on an article “Making sense of New Delhi’s Taliban rapprochement” published in the “The Hindu” on 27^th June 2022.