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Monsoon to cover entire country this week:
Country to stay under monsoon for long
Context:
- Monsoon rains are expected to cover the whole country in the next week and are likely to strengthen over central India.
The concern:
- Normally, the monsoon enters into a ‘break,’ or a prolonged interval of around a week in the middle of July and sometimes August.
- If the breaks were to last too long, it could harbinger a drought.
- There the concern is that yet no indication of a break so far is being accounted.
- Monsoon rains are likely to advance into remaining parts of Jammu division and Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and some parts of Punjab for a long period of time, a key region that determines the fate of the monsoon.
The reason:
- The risk of an El Nino, an anomalous heating of the central Pacific that’s associated with weak rains over India, is low this year.
- Some international weather models expect it to emerge around winter but the IMD’s models do not expect it to emerge until late next year.
