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Source: Times of India
Relevance: Changing global order and emerging security threats for India
Synopsis: The combination of Taliban-led Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran & China is a grave threat for India.
Background
- With the Taliban well and truly in control in Afghanistan, countries in the region have already started a push for power and stakes in the new emerging order.
- China was one of the first to welcome the change in Afghanistan. China stated that “Taliban have repeatedly expressed their hope to develop good relations with China, and we welcome this.”
- Similarly, Pakistan too welcomed the Taliban on national TV by stating that the Taliban has broken the chains of mental slavery in Afghanistan.
- Iran, reacting to the Taliban takeover, stated that the “defeat” of the United States in neighboring Afghanistan should be transformed into an opportunity. Further, it encouraged all groups in Afghanistan to work towards national unity as a “neighbouring and brotherly” country.
- Russia was more cautious and restrained in its reaction, but has kept its embassy in Kabul functional to “maintain contacts with Taliban”.
What are the Imminent threats for India due to changing global order in Afghanistan?
Russia, due to its old and traditional ties with India along with military and diplomatic goodwill, could be counted as a reliable ally. However, it needs to be remembered that Russia, twice this year, didn’t include India in Afghan peace talks. Also, Russia-Pakistan’s military cooperation in recent times and close coordination between Russia and China are issues of concern to India.
Iran, Iran’s hatred for Israel and the US has posed a diplomatic challenge for India. The threat of a military conflict between the US and Iran over attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, alleged attacks by Iranian drones on Saudi airfields, the ongoing Yemen crisis, or the killing of General Soleimani, each of these occasions has posed a diplomatic challenge to India with regard to its relations with Iran. Iran is also critically important to India, as the land routes to Afghanistan and the Central Asian region go through Iran only.
China’s is definitely not an ally for India, especially since the Galwan valley conflict. Further, it publicly stated opposition to India’s participation in the US-led Quad against China in the Indo-Pacific. Whereas, Pakistan has upped its ante again after India revoked Article 370 in August 2019.
Regarding Taliban, there is always a clear and present danger to Indian interests in the region. The hijacking of Indian Airlines Flight IC 814 in December 1999, the fact that Afghan fighters made up to 20-22% of terrorists operating in the state of Jammu and Kashmir are imminent threats from the Taliban.
Conclusion:
If the interests of Pakistan, Taliban-led Afghanistan, China, and, to some extent, Iran converge and unite to forge another Quad, it could pose a security threat unapparelled in independent India.
Last time the Taliban came to power in 1996, China was not in the equation. With China now looking to lock horns, this could well be the biggest threat India has ever faced.
