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What is the News?
NITI Aayog and Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council (TIFAC) have released a report titled ‘Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India’.
Note: TIFAC is an autonomous organization set up in 1988 under the Department of Science & Technology to look ahead in the technology domain, assess the technology trajectories and support innovation.
What are the key findings of the report?
Eight Scenarios: The report has predicted eight scenarios for analyzing the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country. These are Performance Driven, Low Battery Cost, Technology Driven, Incentive Driven, and Optimistic among others.
– In an optimistic scenario, the report forecasts 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Indian market by FY 2026–27.
– In technology-driven scenarios, where current incentives are withdrawn by 2024, the report predicts 72% penetration by 2031.
Constraints: The report has also identified four broad constraints for the eight scenarios in terms of installed vehicle manufacturing capacity and available charging infrastructure: (1) full constraint (where both vehicle production and charging infrastructure are constraints), (2) production constraint (where only vehicle production is a constraint), (3) charge constraint (where only the charging infrastructure is a constraint) and (4) no constraint.
Other observations made by the report: The recent petrol hike and ‘positive mindset’ about EVs could also play a pivotal role in the switch to EVs.
– However, higher battery costs and higher dependency on exports for EV components and subsystems may affect domestic manufacturing capabilities and other policy-related measures.
— Further, the report has also called on the stakeholders to increase the penetration of charging points across the country and said that the safety of EVs will be an important issue for the widespread adoption of EVs.
Source: The post is based on the article “NITI Aayog and TIFAC Launch Report on Future Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in the Indian Market” published in PIB on 29th June 2022
