On Geopolitics of India – As a regional leader, not a victim of circumstance

News:  The changing geopolitics is demanding India’s leadership role in South Asia.  But India has failed to rise to the challenge on many occasions.

What are the changing Geopolitics that is impacting the Indian ocean countries?

In the Indian Ocean Conference this month, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar listed the following issues link to India’s neighbourhood.

1) the rise of China that has resulted in territorial tensions.

2) American pull-out from Afghanistan

3) The challenges posed by the novel coronavirus pandemic

What are the issues linked to India’s Afghan policy?

Firstly, India failed to recognize the U.S’s Afghan policy, especially after it signed the Doha Agreement of February 2020.

The Doha Agreement made the Taliban a legitimate interlocutor, without the condition of a ceasefire.

India merely blindsided with the U.S. and the Troika Plus members (Russia, China, and Pakistan) without voicing out its interest. It paved the way for the fall of the Afghan republic.

Secondly, India failed to secure its friends in Afghanistan. India canceled all the visas that had been granted to Afghans prior to August. India resisted allowing Afghans, looking for shelter in India. Afghans felt betrayed by a country they once considered “second home”.

Thirdly, India has been reluctant to support or host those who pose a counter to the Taliban regime today. For instance, the “Resistance Front” led by Ahmad Massoud and former Vice-President Amrullah Saleh.

It was in contrast to the 1990s when India kept up its contacts with the Northern Alliance, supported their families in India, and admitted thousands of other Afghan refugees. This response helped India to build closer ties with Afghanistan after the Taliban was defeated in 2001.

What are the issues associated with India’s policy in countering China?

Firstly, The Government’s reservation towards acknowledging the Chinese actions in Indian territory is seen as an act of low self-esteem.

Secondly, despite dozens of rounds of military and ministerial talks, the Government is unaware of the reasons for the Chinese action. This exposes a lack of strategic thinking.

Those who have analysed the situation more closely have pointed out few objectives behind China’s aggression at the LAC

China is looking to reclaim the territories that it has lost over hundreds of years, from the South China Sea to Tibet.

– To restrict India’s recent efforts at building border infrastructure, bridges, and roads right up to the LAC.

– To restrict any possible perceived threat to Xinjiang and Tibet.

– To restrict India’s ability to threaten China’s key Belt and Road project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), including a second link highway it plans from the Mustagh pass in occupied Gilgit-Baltistan to Pakistan.

– To blunt India’s plan to reclaim Aksai Chin and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) militarily.

What needs to be done to counter China’s increasing role in India’s neighborhood?

First, India should not make spaces for China in its immediate neighborhood. For instance, India’s failure in keeping its promises to provide vaccines to its neighbors has impacted India’s image as a leader.

Second, India can counter China by invoking its democratic system, which is admired by its neighbors. But before that, India should adhere to democratic principles such as pluralism, representative, inclusive power that respects the rights of each citizen, the media, and civil society.

Thirdly, India should forge its alliance with other countries more carefully, keeping in mind the interest of its neighbors.

Recent surveys by think tanks Carnegie and the Centre for Social and Economic Progress have found that India is a preferred strategic partner for most of the countries in the neighbourhood.

However, possible Indian collaborations with the U.S., Japan, Europe, etc. are being seen as “anti-China” collaborations, which these countries would want to avoid.

These partnerships also hamper India’s ability to stand up for its neighbours when required. For instance, India could not stand up for Bangladesh when the U.S. chose to slap sanctions on Bangladesh’s multi-agency anti-terror Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) force.

Thus, India must stop behaving like a “middle power” and decide its best interests and chart its own course of action in its neighbourhood.

Source: This post is based on the article “As a regional leader, not a victim of circumstance” published in The Hindu on 23^rd   Dec 2021.