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News: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to rush of foreign diplomats to India. India has welcomed Chinese, and Russian leaders. They have come for a personal meeting with the Indian Prime Minister.
Why has India’s decision against condemning Russian aggression should not be criticised?
First, India is not in Europe. In fact, India is a post-colonial country. It very well understands the sensitivities and the nature of the engagement of the Western interlocutors with a given country.
Second, India is fighting serious economic hardships and is recovering from the impact of COVID-19.
Third, it will not wise to expect India not to buy discounted Russian oil. In fact, some of India’s critics are still buying energy from Russia.
Fourth, India has a unique and very complex geopolitical location. Therefore, India needs an unrestricted supply of defence equipment.
Fifth, India’s decision to abstain from condemning Russia is based on a geopolitical rationale (just like India did not condemn the American invasion of Iraq in 2003); it has nothing to do with India being any less of a democracy.
Sixth, Although, Russia may not help India against China in the longer run. But India do not want to alienate Russia. It is because India cannot afford to have yet another unfriendly country in a deeply unfriendly region.
Seventh, In fact, even if India takes a side in the favour of the West, the West may also not stand by India in a future if India enters into a conflict with China
Why does the India should pick a side?
The Russia-Ukraine war is a broader conflict between democracies and non-democracies. Therefore, India must decide to pick up sides.
In case India enters into full-fledged conflict with China in a future, Russia is unlikely to help India.
How is the Russia-Ukraine war significant for India?
India is witnessing the charm of swing-state and the big power moment in the contemporary international system.
In the present war, both the opposing sides (including China with which India is having an adversarial relationship at present) are attempting to woo India.
For example, China has an opportunity to construct an anti-American world order due to opportunities provided by the present war. It can do so by forging regional unity on the Asian continent. On the contrary, the U.S., the U.K. and Germany also want India to take their side in the present war.
What are the potential challenges after the end of Ukraine conflict?
First, India’s position might weaken in the region after the Ukraine war. Indian primacy may end in the region, due to the rise of China-centric Asian geopolitical order. because
- The U.S. has withdrawn from Afghanistan and it is currently focusing on Russia and Ukraine.
- Russia is weakening,
- Beijing is actively playing a geopolitical game with money and muscle power in the region.
Way Forward
New Delhi may indeed be on the side of the Western Countries, but not in the manner they would like India to be. India cannot fully ally with either side. It needs to maintain good relations with both side and adhere to its strategic autonomy.
Source: The post is based on an article “Playing the strategic autonomy game” published in The Hindu on 04th April 2022.
