Preparing India for China’s Missile Challenge

UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 3- Security challenges and their management in border areas

Introduction

Modern warfare is increasingly shaped by conventional missiles that can damage critical infrastructure, weaken military operations and create political pressure without a full-scale war. With China deploying more than 200 conventional missile launchers opposite India, missile superiority has become a major challenge for India’s security. Strengthening a credible conventional missile deterrent through organisational reforms, technological advancement and a dedicated Rocket Force is becoming essential to counter this evolving threat.

China’s Missile Superiority

1. Missiles as tools of coercion and war: China treats conventional missiles as weapons for both political coercion and military operations. Even the threat of missile strikes can achieve strategic goals without escalating into a full-scale war.
2. Large and advanced missile arsenal: The missile bases at Korla and Kunming operate (Dong Feng- DF) DF-15B, DF-16, DF-21C and DF-26 missiles. The first three mainly target military positions along the border, while the DF-26 can strike high-value targets deep inside India.
3. Hypersonic advantage: China also fields DF-100 and CJ-1000 hypersonic missiles, which can strike distant targets with almost no launch warning. India currently has no reliable defence against such weapons.
4. Reduced strategic depth for India: China’s missile capability reduces the protection offered by the Himalayas. Missiles launched from the Tibetan Plateau also shorten India’s detection time and increase the risk of escalation because the DF-26 has a dual role.

India’s Existing Vulnerabilities

1. Gaps in missile capability: India’s long-range missile systems, including Agni, LR-LACM (Nirbhay), BrahMos and their variants, are still being integrated. The country also faces limitations in missile range and diversity.
2. Technology and operational limitations: India lacks robust real-time targeting capability, has limited missile stockpiles, and is still developing hypersonic missile technology.
3. Organisational weakness: India does not yet have an operational Rocket Force. Policy and organisational issues have kept the proposal at the conceptual stage.
4. Limited retaliatory capability: Without a dedicated Rocket Force, India may have little choice but to absorb Chinese missile strikes. This could create a military stalemate even before the border conflict begins.

Need for a Dedicated Rocket Force

1. Rocket Force: A Rocket Force is a dedicated military command that controls and operates conventional long-range missiles under a single command authority. It allows faster decisions and coordinated strikes against strategic, operational and tactical targets.
2. Creating mutual vulnerability: A Rocket Force would enable India to inflict significant damage if China launches missile attacks. India does not need equal missile numbers but must produce comparable military effects.
3. Holding Chinese military assets at risk: The Rocket Force should be capable of threatening the PLA’s Western Theatre Command (WTC) by targeting important military locations in Tibet and Xinjiang.
4. Supporting operations across the battlefield: It should degrade PLA roads, railways, airbases and logistics installations while also helping field commanders strike camps, gun positions and ammunition dumps during combat.

Key Reforms Required

1. Counter-value strategy: India should adopt counter-value strikes as part of its conventional missile strategy. This would require rethinking the scope and scale of its counter-force doctrine.
2. Unified target planning: India should prepare a single unified target list because service- or agency-specific target lists are unsuitable for time-sensitive missile warfare.
3. Pre-delegated launch authority: The Rocket Force should have authority to carry out pre-designated precautionary strikes during the opening phase of a conflict. Delayed launch approval could weaken India’s response.
4. Unified command structure: The Rocket Force should function under the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). Keeping it under one service would reduce operational effectiveness.
5. Expanding missile inventory: India should increase its Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) and Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) inventory, including Agni variants, to hold Korla and Kunming at reciprocal risk.
6. Developing hypersonic capability: India should fast-track hypersonic missile development because DF-100 is already part of the PLA Rocket Force’s ORBAT.
7. Strengthening indigenous missile industry: Greater participation of the private sector should complement DRDO. Higher investment in R&D is needed to improve missile development.
8. Reducing technology dependence: India should strengthen domestic capabilities in advanced propulsion systems, semiconductors and high-grade materials to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.

Immediate Priorities

1. Protecting air power: The IAF should disperse aircraft and strengthen airbases to reduce vulnerability. This would force China to use more missiles to achieve the same effect.
2. Improving air defence: Better deployment of air-defence systems can compel the PLA Rocket Force to attack these defences instead of India’s critical infrastructure.
3. Strengthening conventional strike capability: India should improve long-range conventional strike systems capable of holding important targets in Tibet and Xinjiang at risk, thereby creating reciprocal vulnerability.
4. Enhancing surveillance: India should expand satellite surveillance to detect mobile missile launchers, particularly DF-26 systems, improving the chances of early neutralisation.

Conclusion

China’s missile capability has made conventional missile warfare a major security challenge for India. A credible Rocket Force, stronger missile capabilities, better military organisation, and faster technological development are essential to create effective conventional deterrence. Along with immediate defensive measures, these reforms can improve India’s preparedness and reduce its vulnerability in any future conflict.

Question for practice:

Discuss the challenges posed by China’s conventional missile superiority and examine the measures needed to strengthen India’s conventional missile deterrence.

Source: The Hindu