Present status of India Pakistan relation

Context

In Pakistan’s recent general election Imran khan’s party Tahreek-e-insaaf emerged as the largest party.

Timeline of relation

1947-48: The first Indo-Pak war over Kashmir is fought

The accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India

1960: Indus Water treaty

1965: War- first in Rann of Kutch and later on in Kashmir

1966: Tashkent agreement

1971: War and creation of Bangladesh

1972: Shimla Agreement- Both sides agree to settle any disputes “by peaceful means”

1974: Pokhran Experiment

1989: Terrorism in Kashmir begins

1992: A joint declaration prohibiting the use of chemical weapons is signed in New Delhi

1994: Gujral Doctrine

1998: Pokhran-2, Pakistan responded by its own nuclear test

1999: PM Vajpayee’s Bus Diplomacy

1999: kargil war

2001: Agra Summit

2001: Attack on Srinagar Assembly

Attack on Indian Parliament

2004: SAARC Islamabad Summit, Composite Dialogue process

2007: Samjhauta Express is bombed

2008: Mumbai Terror Attack

2014: PM Modi invited Pakistan along with all SAARC leaders for swearing I ceremony

2015: Terrorist attack in Gurdaspur

2016: Pathankot Attack

2016: Uri attack

2016: surgical strikes to destroy terror launch pads across the LoC in Pakistan

India-Pakistan relation in recent time

• In 2014, Pakistan’s PM Nawaz Sharif attended swearing-in ceremony of PM Modi along with their SAARC counterpart which signaled the beginning of a new South Asian solidarity
• In 2015, PM Modi paid a surprise visit to Lahore which signal’s positive development of relationship between India and Pakistan
• However, with the attack on the Indian Air Force Base in 2016 (Pathankot) and Uri attack, there was a complete stoppage of talks at all levels in between the nations. Speculations, however, run that back channel talks exist.

Other factors led to deteriorating relation

• volatile situation in Kashmir
• kulbhushan Jadav case
• Cross-border fatalities and repeated violation of the ceasefire by Pakistan

• No action is being taken by Pakistan over terror accused Hafeez Saeed

  Issues of fishermen

• Most favoured nation under South Asian Free Trade Agreement 

Pakistan election and the Impact on India-Pakistan relationship

• Cricketer turned politician Imran khan’s political party Tahreek-e-insaaf emerge as the largest party in recently held General election in Pakistan. It is being alleged that Imran khan is a military backed candidate.

Kashmir and terrorism

• In his first speech, Imran khan said that he is committed to resolve the Kashmir issue in accordance with UN resolutions.
• But India had made it clear that India will not indulge in any talk unless Pakistan curb cross border terrorism and jihadi groups (and particularly Hafiz Saeed)
• This would be challenge for new government because of Imran khans known links to extremist religious groups, and the establishment’s strategic purpose of politically mainstreaming jihadi organizations.

Trade

• Imran Khan vowed for better economic ties with India and increase in trade.
• But a major challenge is that expanded trade relation with India is that it would inevitably bring in issues of India’s connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia. This may pose serious implications for Pakistan’s existing strategy to impede India’s links to that region.

Peace process

• Stability in Pakistan politics enhance the chances of talks and negotiation between the two nation
• But because of known military backup, India has to make a national consensus on engaging both sides of the civil-military power centers in Pakistan

CPEC

• In his first speech Imran khan shows his high hope towards China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. He consider CPEC as important tool to eradicate poverty and bring prosperity in Pakistan
• This would be a challenge between India Pakistan relation as India consider CPEC as an attack on India’s Sovereignty
• 

TAPI pipeline

• Swearing-in PM of Pakistan gave high priority to trade and development. This increase the chances of positive talk over the TAPI pipeline
• But providing security to pipeline in disturb area of Quetta would be a challenge for Pakistan

Relation with china

• New PM has shown its interest to improve relation with China
• But India regards China’s rise as its utmost strategic priority and is concerned about how Beijing might restrain New Delhi’s own rise to global power status.

Way Ahead

• Stephen P Cohen in his book ‘Shooting for Century’ calls Indo-Pak Conflicts as ‘Paired minority conflict’ i.e. both side viewed itself threatened and vulnerable. There is need to enhance cooperation between the two Nation
• India should revisit its policy towards military government in Pakistan. India may consider to negotiate with Military regime
• India should improve back channel diplomacy. Many retired cricketer like Navjot sidhu and kapil dev would be helpful to establish a platform for negotiation
• Both nation should begin their negotiation on areas where they can reach an agreement easily. This would help to build confidence for negotiation on major issues like Terrorism and Kashmir
• Both government should promote civil society initiative like aman ki asha to build positive environment in their respective country