Redrawing the arc of influence: 

Redrawing the arc of influence: 

Indian diplomacy needs to display higher levels of sophistication for New Delhi to play a global role.

Context:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign visits has been extremely impressive, and he has managed to inject a degree of dynamism into a system accustomed to a more leisurely pace.

Recent Visits:

U.S. visit:

• Both sides mainly focus on counter-terrorism and the defence security partnership, avoiding contentious trade-related issues.

Israel visit:

• In the case of Israel, this being the first ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister to that country.
• Israel achieved a major propaganda scoop by getting the Indian Prime Minister to visit the memorial of Theodor Herzl, founding father of the Zionist movement
• The main focus of the visit was on defence cooperation, joint development of defence products and transfer of technology.
• Both countries also expressed a strong commitment to combat terror.

Importance  of China for Israel

• China is a bigger investor and trading partner of Israel than India.
• India and Israel decided to set up a $40 million Innovation Fund to allow Indian and Israeli enterprises to develop innovative technologies and products for commercial applications.
• Israel-China comprehensive innovation partnership which has an outlay of $300 million.
• India and Israel also have differences over China’s BRI.

Key points:

• China in Asia is already exercising some of the political and economic leverages that the U.S. previously possessed.
• China has a significant presence in East and Southeast Asia, is steadily enlarging its presence in South Asia, and is also beginning to expand into West Asia.
• China’s influence in Iran today appears to be at an all-time high, whereas India’s influence seems to be diminishing
• India has refused to be inveigled by China’s blandishments, including the BRI.
• Few other countries in Asia are willing or in a position to tangle with China.
• A divided ASEAN again has provided China with an opportunity to demonstrate its economic and military muscle.
• Most countries in the region also demonstrate a desire to join China-based initiatives.
• Even in South Asia, despite India’s commanding presence, China has been successful in winning quite a few friends among India’s neighbours such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

India-Russia:

• Russia is undergoing a strategic resurgence of sorts, sustained in good measure by the close relations recently established with China.
• Buoyed by developments in the Ukraine and Crimea, and the uncertainties surrounding U.S. commitment to NATO, the new Russia-China ‘strategic congruence’ is certain to impact Asia.
• The problem for India and Indian diplomacy is that at this time India-Russia relations appear less robust than at any time in the past half century
•  India’s ‘Act East and Look West’ policies have given a new dimension to Indian diplomacy in both East and West Asia.
• In both regions, especially in West Asia, Indian diplomacy still lacks the nimbleness required to deal with fast-changing situations.
• In West Asia, despite its long time presence in the region, a 9-million strong diaspora, and the region being its principal source of oil, India is not major player presently.
• Both Russia and China have overtaken India in the affairs of the region. This is particularly true of Iran where the Russia-China-Iran relationship has greatly blossomed, almost marginalising India’s influence.

In West Asia:

• India’s absence from, and its inability to play a role in, West Asia, even as the region confronts a split down the line between the Arab and the non-Arab world is unfortunate.
• There is the possibility of a series of confrontations between an increasingly powerful Shiite Iran and a weakening Saudi Arabia.
• The most recent challenge is the one posed by Qatar to the existing order in the West Asian region.
• The fallout of all this will impact India adversely and Indian diplomacy’s inability to make its presence felt will matter.
• An additional concern for India would be that growing uncertainties in the region could further fuel radical Islamist terror in the region.

Conclusion:

Indian diplomacy presently need to do is to look out ways to steer amid an assertive China, a hostile Pakistan,  an uncertain South Asian and West Asian neighbourhood and an unstable world.