Rich countries spend more poor nations pay the price

Source: The post Rich countries spend more poor nations pay the price has been created, based on the article “The illusion of fiscal discipline” published in “Businessline” on 22nd July 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper3- Economy

Context: Global financial policies continue to demand strict fiscal discipline from low and middle income countries, even though high income nations run higher public debts. This article analyses the imbalance through IMF data and highlights the deeper issue of unequal financial power and capital market dynamics. Rich countries spend more poor nations pay the price

Persistent Belief in Fiscal Conservatism

1. Legacy of the Washington Consensus: Controlling fiscal deficits through reduced government spending is still dominant policy in lower-income countries. Though discredited in richer nations, the idea survives among policymakers elsewhere.
2. Fear of Global Finance: Low and middle income countries, integrated into global capital markets, fear capital flight. They respond procyclically by cutting spending during downturns, worsening economic pain.
3. IMF’s Uniform Policy: The IMF pressures all borrowing nations to reduce public debt-to-GDP ratios, mostly through spending cuts or regressive taxes—even when their main problem is foreign currency debt, not domestic.

Global Debt Ratios and Trends

1. Higher Debt in Rich Nations: High income countries have much higher gross debt-to-GDP ratios, especially after the 2008 financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic. The average rose from 78% in 2008 to 122% in 2021, and is expected to be 110% in 2025.
2. Lower Debt in Developing Countries: In 2008, middle income countries had a debt ratio of 34%, increasing to 75% by 2025. Low income countries started at 27%, reaching only 52% by 2025—well below rich countries’ levels.
3. Net Debt Adjustments: Considering net debt (liabilities minus financial assets), rich countries still show significantly higher ratios. Recently, low income countries exceed middle income ones due to faster liability growth and weak asset accumulation.

 Prudent Fiscal Behaviour in Poorer Nations

1. Smaller Fiscal Deficits: Overall fiscal deficits are lower in low income countries compared to richer peers. This trend is even clearer in primary deficits, which exclude interest payments.
2. Spending Restraint Despite Urgent Needs: Despite urgent poverty and development needs, low income countries have restricted spending in all conditions to limit deficits.
3. Weak Response to Economic Shocks: Government spending as a share of GDP shows stark contrasts. Rich nations increased spending significantly during crises, middle income countries did so moderately, and low income countries barely adjusted.

Unfair Treatment by Financial Markets

1. Disproportionate Market Penalties: Debt crises are concentrated in fiscally disciplined lower-income countries. In 2023, median sovereign bond spreads hit 1400 basis points for “high debtors”—who actually have much lower debt levels than rich nations. Even “low debtors” faced 500 basis point spreads in 2020.
2. Currency Hierarchies Shape Perceptions: Investor perception, shaped by currency hierarchies, affects bond markets. Middle and low income countries face capital flight regardless of fiscal prudence.
3. Power Imbalances, Not Policy Failure: These outcomes reflect geopolitical and financial power, not incorrect policies. Developing nations participate in capital markets on unequal terms.

Reevaluating the Global Financial Architecture

1. Time to Rethink Policy Norms: Low and middle income countries must challenge global fiscal orthodoxy. Blind adherence to current norms may harm their long-term progress.
2. Build Economic Sovereignty: By reducing dependence on volatile capital, these countries can better serve their social and developmental goals.

Question for practice:

Discuss why low and middle income countries face harsher financial market penalties despite maintaining lower public debt levels compared to high income countries.