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Source-This post on Russia-China Relationship and implications for India has been created based on the article “A ‘No-Limit’ bromance that is not just a bilateral matter” published in “The Hindu” on 22 May 2024.
UPSC Syllabus-GS Paper-2-International Relation- Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
Context– Putin and Xi have met over 40 times in 11 years, earning the title of “old friends.” Their recent Summit in Beijing, marking 75 years of diplomatic relations, is seen as one of their most important meetings yet.
How has the relationship between Russia and China evolved over time?
1) 19th century- Czarist Russia expanded towards the Pacific, taking advantage of a weak China.
2) Post-1949- The formation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 initially led to a short-lived period of friendship, which was then overshadowed by ideological and geopolitical disagreements, notably sparked by China’s invasion of India in 1962. These tensions intensified with armed confrontations in 1969, mainly concerning border issues.
3) 1972 onwards- After Nixon’s visit, China leaned towards the West in pursuit of prosperity and liberalization. The relationship between Russia and China weakened as the Soviet Union fell apart.
4) 2012 onwards-The U.S. became concerned about China’s assertiveness, prompting a strategic shift towards Asia and efforts to disentangle economically. Consequently, China tilted towards Russia, resulting in the establishment of the “No Limits” partnership announced in 2022.
What is the current status of Russia-China economic ties?
The Western blockade pushed Moscow closer to China, which was also facing economic pressure from the West. This led to a significant increase in Russia-China ties over the past two years, both in terms of quantity and quality.
1) Russia-China trade reached $240 billion in 2023, growing 26% from 2022. , but it still trades more with the U.S. ($575 billion)
2) Russia is heavily dependent on China as a market for energy exports and a source of critical inputs, including for the Ukraine war.
What were the outcomes of the recent Summit?
1) The joint statement was silent on bilateral economic, financial, and military ties, possibly to avoid Western sanctions or due to disagreements.
2) It accused the U.S. of “dual containment” and a negative “Indo-Pacific Strategy,”. This signals a united front against American influence.
3) In the short term, the summit could bring stronger cooperation, especially in providing materials for Russia’s actions in Ukraine. China might also want better deals for Russian resources and access to important technologies. It could also try to strengthen its control over Central Asia with Russia’s agreement.
4) Long term impacts: While China wants to enjoy the economic profits from both Russia and West, US has warned it that “You cannot have it both ways.” This, combined with China’s ambition for global dominance, may lead to a new Cold War, challenging the U.S.-led global order established after World War II.
What are the implications for India?
1) India needs to carefully examine the depth and durability of the Russia-China partnership given their turbulent history and Russia’s potential vulnerability before China due to western countries-imposed sanctions on it. This may lead to a situation where the reliability of Russian supplies to India may become subject to Chinese pressures.
Read more- On Potential of India-China Relations
2) India needs to carefully balance between the current global system and China’s emerging alternative. It should aim for a stronger presence that aligns with its own interests.
3) During the previous Cold War, India advocated non-alignment principle without prioritizing its socio-economic progress and the practical politics it needed, Thus, India should adopt a pragmatic approach by leveraging its strengths and pursue long-term goals with clarity and determination in the evolving global dynamics.
Question for practice
How has the relationship between Russia and China evolved over time? How can growing China-Russia closeness impact Indias interest.
