Stormy weather awaits India in 2019

Stormy weather awaits India in 2019

International relation

News: Global events signal a Stormy weather year in 2019 with unexpected outcomes for India.

Facts:

International events:

• There is global leadership vacuum around the world and the rules governing international order are being diluted.
• The trade war and hegemony between US on one side and China and Russia on the other side are signaling the beginning of a new Cold War.
• US has threatened to pull out of a major arms control treaty with Russia and Russia has also been talking of building stronger deterrence.
• Russia is vigorously pursuing its pivot to Asia and for greater influence in Eurasia. It has deepened its partnership with China, Japan and South Korea.
• China is consolidating its position in Asia. Its Belt and Road Initiative has become a common thread in Asia with Vietnam and Japan endorsing this concept.
• A decline in Britain’s financial assets following Brexit, signs of increasing fragility of China’s economy, and likelihood of the U.S. moving into a period of slower long-term growth will affect India’s growth prospects.
• The strengthening of the Russia-China strategic relationship and thaw in China-Japan ties would need a rebalancing of Indo-Japan and Indo-Russia ties.
• China already maintains presence at the Gwadar (Pakistan) and Hambantota (Sri Lanka) Ports and its efforts to control Kyaukpyu Port on the Arakan Coast in Myanmar could give it a stranglehold across the Indian Ocean Region.
• India has been kept out of talks with the Afghan Taliban by all countries concerned, including the U.S., China, and Russia, apart from Pakistan, which could further improve Pakistan’s sway in South Asia.

Internal Security:

• Left extremist violence went up marginally in 2018, but the movement remained circumscribed within a core area in some states but ideologically, the movement has remained vibrant, and ideological and militant aspects will need deft handling.
• Situation on Jammu and Kashmir has deteriorated in 2018 with a spurt in killings of military personnel and increase in educated youths joining militant ranks.
• Another problem is the rise of ethnic sub-nationalism in the Northeast following the enactment of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill which has united the vast sections ofpeople in the northeast.
• Farmers’ and dalit issues which kept the nation on the edge in 2018 still linger and need focused attention of the government.