The coming battle for Taiwan

Source: The post is based on an article “The coming battle for Taiwan” published in the Live Mint on 8^th August 2022.

Syllabus: GS 2 International Relations

Relevance: Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific Region and India’s neighborhood

News: The recent visit of US Leader Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has triggered geopolitical events in the Indo-Pacific Region, in the form of the current Taiwan crisis.

China wants to reunify the country, both to recover from two centuries of humiliation by Western powers and to finish the civil war that started nearly a hundred years ago.

Further, China believes that if it recovers Taiwan, then it will retake its rightful place as a global power.

What are the stages that China has passed through to reach its present status?

First Act: China has adopted Deng Xiaoping’s ‘hide and bide’ strategy and Hu Jintao’s ‘peaceful rise’. Thus, it remained peaceful, until it was powerful enough to move to the next stage.

Second Act: By 2010 Beijing assessed that it was powerful enough to assert itself in the international arena. Therefore, it started forcefully taking control of disputed territories, both land, and sea, on its own terms.  It has used coercion and force to change the status quo along the Ryukyus, Spratlys, Paracels, the nine dashed lines in the South China Sea, and, the Himalayan frontiers with Bhutan, Nepal, and India. However, India has been successful in forceful resistance.

Third act: By 2020, Hong Kong was reunited. China destroyed its limited autonomy under “one country, two systems”. Thus, the only remaining Chinese target is Taiwan. Macao had already been taken.

The Fourth act: It will take place when China is reunified. It will then challenge and upstage the US as the world’s dominant power.

What are the possible resistances to Chinese policy?

There are always two threats that can cause destruction to a particular country, including, present China; 1) Internal folly and 2) External resistance.

Internal Folly: Great nations suffer more from self-inflicted wounds than anything done by the enemy. China has been suffering from one century of civil war and revolutionary excesses. For example, recent attacks on the private sector, the tech economy, the current zero-covid policy, etc. have damaged the Chinese economy.

External resistance: India’s resistance has added friction to the Chinese ambition in the Himalayas. QUAD and AUKUS have emerged. Nancy Pelosi’s visit is a manifestation of a bipartisan consensus in Washington that Beijing must be challenged.

What should be done?

For India

(1) Late K. Subrahmanyam pithily stated that India is better off on the side of the West in its contest with China because China’s desire and thy manner of pursuing its desire is wrong

(2) Taiwan is not a major strategic concern for India. However, because it is the single most important factor that can consume Beijing’s energies and delay its play for global power, it is in our interest that Taiwan keep China occupied. Therefore, to some extent, our interests converge with those of the US, Japan, Australia, and the Taiwanese people.

(3) Quad partners can extend material support, and India’s moral support for Taiwan can be very important.

Global Geopolitics

As China may go to war. Therefore, international leaders should pursue good diplomacy, which involves buying time. A real invasion might begin with pre-emptive attacks against US military assets.