The picture after Doklam: 

The picture after Doklam: 

Context

The standoff between India and China in Doklam has been a learning experience for India.

Why Doklam episode is so distinct in nature?

• It was the first time that India deployed troops — even in the hundreds — on the Chinese border after a third party asked for help.
• Second, while such stand-offs have multiplied recently, it was by far the longest one — about 10 weeks — suggesting that there was much at stake on both sides and that the mechanisms of border dispute resolution were not as effective as they used to be, or not even relevant in such a case.
• Third, India can claim that it has forced China to withdraw by showing determination-cum-restraint, a mix that has impressed other South Asian countries which are under Chinese pressure and may turn to India for preserving their sovereignty.

Why Doklam is grave an issue for India than Bhutan?

• Bhutan asked India for help despite the fact that Doklam was not as strategic for Thimphu as for New Delhi, whose leaders worried about the security of the “chicken neck”, a vulnerable set of plains and valleys that a part of Bhutan (including the Doklam plateau) overlooks.
• Currently, Bhutan has paired up with India, but how long will it continue to side with India, is a concern for the Indian government.
• China will take any measure to influence Bhutan that Chinese tourists are already visiting in large numbers.
• With regard to security, India can provide with a credible military force, but its contribution towards the economic development of the Himalayan kingdom is not enough. India will have to deliver and deliver effectively to retain Bhutanese trust.
• Bhutan is about to have its elections in 2018. Some observers have already emphasised that Bhutan should not alienate China and take the risk of breaking the dialogue between the two countries.
• Both countries have no diplomatic relations but they have talked since 1984 and have even signed the Agreement on the Maintenance of Border and Tranquillity in 1998.
• They were supposed to meet before August for the 25th round of talks regarding the border dispute but the Chinese have postponed this round of negotiation with no appointed date to resume talks.

China being a continuous threat to India. How?

• While Bhutan’s attitude is important, the Chinese strategy is key
• Beijing has explained that Doklam, which the Chinese call Donglang has been part of China since ancient times.
• And China will stand rigid with this claim.
• In late August, the PLA troops withdrew mostly because China was hosting the BRICS summit in early September and feared an Indian boycott
• A boycott form India in the Xiamen meet would have badly affected China’s international image which it could not afford prior to the meet of the Communist Party of China.
• But China will definitely stage a comeback with its claim.
• In Xiamen meet, China no doubt designated Pakistan based Islamist groups – LeT, the Haqqani network, the TTP and Jaish-e-Mohammed as “terrorist” outfits, but China may continue to veto a similar move targeting the Jaish leader, Masood Azhar, in the UN
• In any case, China will not let down Pakistan while the CPEC is gaining momentum as one of the major components of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

With these dynamics, what is India’s position in the world politics?

• India is already getting closer to the US.
• This strategy can raise problems for the country, not only because of current US Administration’s erratic and protectionist behavior but also is isolationist in nature, because such a rapprochement will further distance India from China and even Russia.
• The first collateral casualty of these developments seems to be the BRICS grouping itself
• India’s scepticism vis-à-vis BRICS is reinforced by the way Russia tries to use the organisation against the West and keeps “acquiescing to Chinese leadership
• Besides the US, India is also turning to Japan
• Recently Asia-Africa Growth Corridor was launched, a project Indian and Japan have conceived together.
• This partnership could be the cornerstone of a larger coalition that may include other countries eager to resist China’s “string of pearls” in the Asia-Pacific region.

What are the challenges India will face in resisting China?

• The first major problem India may face in its attempt to resist China is economic: China is not only the first trade partner of India but a large investor too: Chinese entrepreneurs are among those who are more than happy to “Make in India”
• Secondly, India cannot mobilize as many resources as China to make inroads in third countries. For example – Sri Lanka is a case in point: China could acquire 70 per cent of the Hambantota deep sea port in July, in addition to many other strategic locations, including Gwadar, because of a financial strike force India cannot compete with.