The regional great game

The regional great game

International Relation

News: The article discusses growing bilateral relations between Iran, India, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Facts:

• Iran and Pakistan, which were trying to remain close, are today moving in opposite directions.
• This development is fueled by India’s growing proximity to Iran and Saudi Arabia’s to Pakistan.

India and Iran relations:

• In December 2018 India formally took over the operations of Shahid Beheshti Port at Chabahar, which is one of the gateways of India to Afghanistan.
• Last month, India, Iran and Afghanistan, held the first meeting for the implementation of the trilateral Chabahar agreement signed in 2016. They agreed on the routes for trade and transit corridors between the three countries.
• Amid US sanctions on Iran, Chabahar port was exempt by US for India because this port is vital for the ongoing support of Afghanistan’s growth and humanitarian relief.
• India’s importance for Iran has increased amid US sanctions as waiving of US sanctions made oil trade possible for Iran; and India and Iran could finalise the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) that would reduce tariffs on 80 to 100 products.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia relations:

• Pakistan has similarly been pushed towards Saudi Arabia by the compulsions of financial circumstances.
• Pakistan needs to raise money from abroad and it is being helped by Saudi Arabia and UAE through aid, industrial and strategic investments.
• Saudi Arabia decided to invest $10 billion in a refinery in Gwadar, Pakistan, to rule out any Iranian presence in Gwadar, as was being discussed by Iran and Pakistan.

Iran Pakistan efforts at rapprochement:

• Pakistan and Iran tried hard to ameliorate their collaboration till recently.
• Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff had paid an important visit to Tehran in October 2017, first time in 20 years and Iranians discussed cooperation on missile technology with Pakistan.
• Iran also expressed interest in being part of the BRI and mentioned for the first time resolution of Kashmir issue, comparing this conflict to the Israeli-Palestinian one, something which India disliked.

India had improved its relations with UAE and Saudi Arabia in last four years. India and Saudi Arabia signed five MoUs in 2018 regarding exchange of intelligence related to money laundering, terrorism financing and related crimes amid the spread of Islamic State and threats from groups in Af-Pak region. But Pakistan’s growing closeness with Saudi Arabia may dilute India-Saudi Arabia plans of cooperation.

When US pulls out of Afghanistan the region will see influence of regional players growing in Afghanistan. Meanwhile amid fluid situation, the Iran-India and Pakistan-Saudi Arabia bipole can see further crystallization in this new regional game.