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The seats around the Afghan round table
Important Facts:
Issue:
United States is likely to withdraw troops from Afghanistan after pulling troops from Syria. Such probable future step demands reform in India’s Afghanistan Policy
Analysis of US Afghanistan Policy:
- Currently US spends $45billion/year on Afghan security and economic development
- In last 18 years, US lost 2400 troops and paid cost of $800bn on US forces and $105bn on Afghanistan rebuilding efforts with no effective output
- US Afghanistan 2017 policy mandated 5000 US troops, boosting afghan forces capabilities and holding Pakistan accountable for US aid
- After a year, state of affairs have not changed as Taliban holds ground strongly in Afghanistan
- US has lost its goodwill among Afghan people and stationing troops looks liability for US
Status of Afghanistan Security forces:
- Afghanistan forces are facing high attrition with about 3,000 casualties since 2017 when they took over combat operation from US against Taliban
- Such status is mainly due to lack of effective training and equipments
- Currently, Afghanistan forces strength is more than 10% lower than sanctioned strength
- Special forces have been raised with strong capabilities but their numbers are limited and are depended on US airlift and intelligent imagery
Status of Afghanistan Governance System:
- In 2004, Afghanistan adopted US style strong Presidential system but institutions of legislature, judiciary and civil societies for check and balance are missing
- Parliamentary election result held in October 2018 has still not been announced on reason of election rigging and Presidential election has been postponed to July 2019
- Possible planning Loya Jirga (tribal assembly) to draw future course of actions related to US and Taliban
Status of Taliban:
- Taliban has been growing strong as can observed various fora had been instituted for negotiation with it like Quad, Moscow regional conference
- Poppy production increased four times since 2002 financing Taliban insurgency operations
India’s Afghanistan policy:
- India advocate any peace negotiation should be afghan-led, afghan-owned and afghan-controlled
- India has earned strong goodwill among all Afghanistan ethnic groups mainly due to creation of social infrastructure projects including assistance for parliamentary building
India’s Future Action:
- As per this Article, India need strong and active diplomacy engagement with Afghanistan both officially and non- officially and should be strong partner in any peace negotiations and in developmental process
