The year gone by, the Quad’s year of interregnum

UPSC Syllabus- GS Paper 2- International Organisations- Their structure and Mandate

Introduction

The year 2025 marked a phase of pause and recalibration for the Quad amid deep global geopolitical churn. The return of Donald Trump as U.S. President reshaped American priorities, while the Indo-Pacific emerged as the most contested region due to rising U.S.–China competition. In this context, the Quad continued to matter, even as it entered a clear phase of interregnum marked by strategic uncertainty and leadership transition.

What is the Quad Grouping?

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) or Quad: It is an informal strategic forum among like-minded democracies across the Indian and the Pacific Ocean, which is aimed to ensure and support a ‘free, open and prosperous‘ Indo-Pacific region. It comprises of the USA, India, Japan, and Australia.

Evolution of the Quad

1. Humanitarian origins: The Quad emerged in 2004 after the Indian Ocean tsunami as a coordination platform for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
2. Early withdrawal: Member states stepped back due to domestic priorities and fears of being perceived as containing China, leading to loss of momentum.
3. Strategic revival: In 2007, Shinzo Abe articulated an Indo-Pacific vision, which gained substance in 2017 as the Quad was revived to support a rules-based order amid China’s growing regional presence.
4. Institutional deepening: Between 2021 and 2024, the Quad held six leader-level summits and multiple ministerial meetings, transforming it into an action-oriented cooperation framework.

Importance of the Quad

1. Strategic balance: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue acts as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence by promoting a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific grounded in shared rules and norms.
2. Rules-based order: The Quad consistently supports ASEAN centrality, UNCLOS, and peaceful dispute resolution, reinforcing stability in contested regions such as the South China Sea.
3. Maritime security: The grouping strengthens maritime security through coordinated initiatives like maritime domain awareness and joint naval exercises, improving monitoring and response capacity across the Indo-Pacific.
4. Operational cooperation: Mechanisms such as the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness and the annual Malabar naval exercise enhance interoperability and protect sea lanes.
5. Economic cooperation: The Quad promotes resilient economic growth through infrastructure development and coordination, offering credible alternatives to debt-driven development models in the region.
6. Infrastructure alternatives: Platforms like the Quad Infrastructure Coordination Group help design and finance transparent and sustainable infrastructure projects across Indo-Pacific states.
7. Supply chain resilience: The Quad works to reduce over-dependence on China in critical minerals, semiconductors, and emerging technologies to prevent economic coercion and supply disruptions.
8. Technology security: Initiatives on semiconductor supply chains and cable connectivity aim to secure critical digital and industrial infrastructure vital for economic and national security.
9. Public goods delivery: The Quad has expanded beyond security to provide public goods such as vaccines and health cooperation through initiatives like the Quad Vaccine Partnership.
10. Humanitarian response: The grouping plays a key role in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief through logistics coordination and timely support during regional disasters..

Evaluation of the Quad in 2025

1. Leadership pause: The Quad failed to convene a leader-level summit in 2025 despite India being scheduled to host it, breaking the earlier rhythm of engagement.
2. Policy transition: Leadership changes in the United States and Japan introduced uncertainty, with new leaders yet to participate in Quad summits.
3. Diplomatic continuity: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted Quad Foreign Ministers in January and July 2025, signalling continued political priority.
4. Operational resilience: Initiatives such as Quad-at-Sea and port infrastructure cooperation continued, showing that collaboration had moved beyond symbolism.
5. Strategic interregnum: Developments in 2025 reflected recalibration rather than weakening, shaped by leadership change and regional uncertainty.

Challenges Faced by the Quad

1. Anti-China perception: The Quad is widely viewed as an anti-China alignment, with China calling it an “Asian NATO” and accusing it of promoting regional discord.
2. Divergent priorities: Quad members differ in threat perception and commitment levels, as seen during the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes when support for India did not translate into direct involvement.
3. U.S. recalibration: The Trump administration’s ‘America First’ approach created uncertainty among partners about the consistency of U.S. strategic commitment.
4. India–U.S. frictions: U.S. positions on India–Pakistan issues, Kashmir, and tariffs related to India’s oil purchases from Russia strained trust within the grouping.
5. Institutional deficit: The absence of a formal secretariat or treaty framework limits long-term planning, policy continuity, and execution capacity.
6. China dependence: Strong economic ties with China constrain Quad members’ strategic choices, highlighted by trade retaliation against Australia and China’s export embargoes on rare earths and critical minerals.
7. Security divergence: India’s preference for strategic autonomy and reluctance toward formal military alliances slows deeper security cooperation.
8. Expansion dilemma: Including new members risks diluting cohesion and focus, raising concerns over effectiveness and internal consensus.
9. ASEAN unease: Some ASEAN states fear the Quad could increase regional polarization and weaken ASEAN’s central role in Indo-Pacific dialogue.

Way Forward

1. Summit urgency: An early leader-level summit is essential to restore political momentum and reaffirm shared strategic priorities.
2. Institutionalisation: The Quad should move towards a more formal structure through a light secretariat and regularised meetings at working, ministerial, and leaders’ levels.
3. Security deepening: Military cooperation should be strengthened by expanding the Malabar naval exercise to include advanced operations such as anti-submarine and amphibious warfare.
4. Operational expansion: Existing initiatives on maritime security, ports, and logistics should be scaled up to deliver visible outcomes across the Indo-Pacific.
5. ASEAN engagement: A structured Quad–ASEAN dialogue can align efforts on maritime security, infrastructure development, and regional economic resilience.
6. Economic framework: A Quad economic framework should be established to support digital trade, high-tech investment, and coordination on standards for emerging technologies.
7. Quad Plus outreach: A ‘Quad Plus’ dialogue on infrastructure and development can include partners like South Korea, Vietnam, and Singapore to widen regional cooperation.
8. Strategic reassurance: Clear communication among Quad members is needed to manage bilateral frictions and sustain trust during periods of political transition.

Conclusion

Resilient relevance: The year 2025 tested the Quad’s cohesion but did not erode its strategic value. Despite diplomatic strain and summit absence, cooperation continued through active initiatives. This interregnum reflects adjustment, not erosion, reaffirming the Quad’s enduring role in strengthening Indo-Pacific security and collective action amid growing regional instability.

For detailed information on QUAD Grouping- Significance and Challenges read this article here

Question for practice:

Discuss how the Quad evolved and remained relevant during 2025 despite leadership transitions, diplomatic frictions, and the absence of a leader-level summit in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Source: The Hindu