Towards a regional reset?

Towards a regional reset?

 Context

Bold moves to normalize ties with China and Pakistan will enhance India’s standing

Flexibility with neighbors

Resetting ties with China

• Peaceful resolution to Doklam standoff
• Indian government also toned down the planned celebrations marking the anniversary of the Dalai Lama’s arrival from Tibet
• New Delhi and Beijing have now embarked on a flurry of high-level visits that are meant to lead up to a summit meeting between the two leaders

Issues on which both India and China can gain by working together

For India: Chinese push in India’s NSG bid

• China could remove its block to India’s membership by adopting a more inclusive approach within the nuclear export control organisation
• Even if withdrawal of China’s objections does not soften the objections of more hardline “non-proliferationists” or Non-Proliferation Treaty-proponents, the goodwill from such a move would propel India-China relations forward. 

For China: Addressing Indian concerns on BRI

• Addressing India’s three concerns: on territorial integrity, transparency of projects and their sustainability
• The solution to the first is contained in a proposal under consideration to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan
• The shift from the CPEC to what could be called PACE or the Pakistan-Afghanistan-China Economic corridor would necessitate a shift away from projects in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir
• Those projects may still be built and funded by China, but then would not constitute a part of the BRI route; as a result, India’s concerns on sovereignty could be dispensed with
• India could take the lead in creating an international template for infrastructure and connectivity proposals, one that would seek to engage China and other donor countries in a structured approach towards debt financing
• This would win India goodwill in the neighbourhood too, where every other country (apart from Bhutan) has signed on to the BRI, but has felt alienated by India’s rigid opposition to the initiative.

No interference in Maldives

• Indian government decided not to exert hard power in bringing Maldives President Abdulla Yameen around after he declared a state of emergency in the country
• Nor did it engage China in a confrontation when Mr. Yameen sought Beijing’s support in this regard
• The government remained silent as Male went a step further and held discussions with Pakistan’s Army Chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, on joint patrolling of its Exclusive Economic Zone, an area of operation in the Indian Ocean considered to be India’s domain.

With Nepal

India welcomed the newly elected PM and didn’t raise any concerns over growing Nepalese proximity to China

Quiet progress with Pakistan

• The resolution For the first time National Security Adviser (NSA) met his Pakistani counterpart, , as a part of “established channels of communications at various levels” between the two sides in the past few years, post-Pathankot
• The resolution of the standoff over the treatment of diplomats in Delhi and Islamabad indicates that neither government has the appetite for escalation at this point.

SAARC re-engagement

• The real tipping point in India’s regional reset will come if the government also decides to reconsider its opposition to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit this year, with Pakistan as the host.
• All the member countries are pushing for a summit this year

Conclusion

This may require the government’s much touted “Doval Doctrine” to take a leaf out of the much derided “Gujral Doctrine” book, it may be in keeping with a larger desire for a regional reset, bringing Mr. Modi’s last year in this term of office more in line with his first