Why’s Buddha frowning

News: Ukraine had given up its nuclear weapons in 1994 as per the Budapest accord and its security was guaranteed by Russia, the USA, and Europe. The news of the Russian invasion of Ukraine brings the question;  would Russia have dared this had Ukraine been a nuclear state?

This episode of the invasion of Ukraine highlights the importance of India developing nuclear weapons and declaring itself a nuclear state. However, there are different school of thought in India, with different opinions on that.

What are the schools of thought on India’s nuclear weapons?

First belongs to Homi Bhabha-era, they believe India should have built its nukes even before China. Former foreign secretary Maharajakrishna Rasgotra even commented that the USA had offered help in this matter to India.

Second school believed Nuclear weapons are ugly, immoral, and unusable to humanity. But after Pokharan-2 in 1998, this school has faded, and now it talks of minimum deterrence including agreements like Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Third, India would have been served better with nuclear ambiguity as India Gandhi had already demonstrated India’s nuclear capacity in Pokharan-1 in 1974. The 1998 nuclear tests also gave Pakistan the opportunity to test and declare itself as a Nuclear weapon state.

Fourth, mere demonstration of 1974 was not enough. (A) Because India did not declare itself as a Nuclear weapons state. (B) It exposed India to sanctions.

Did India gain or lose by declaring itself a nuclear state?

This move is often criticized as it enabled Pakistan to conduct and declare itself a nuclear state. But there were indications that Pakistan already had nuclear designs in the late 1980s. For example, the USA did not renew its nuclear-free certificate to Pakistan after 1989.

And that year itself, Rajiv Gandhi signaled its top scientists to make India a nuclear state. Then India conducted Pokharan 2 in 1998 followed by Pakistan’s Chagai tests.

Now, India has been accepted as a legitimate nuclear weapons power. It is admitted to most multilateral arrangements, rid of all the sanctions, and an American strategic ally. Thus, It was not at all a bad idea to become a nuclear power.

Source: This post is based on the article “Why’s Buddha frowning” published in Business Standard on 26th February 2022.