The anatomy of India’s Ukraine dilemma

News: India abstained from a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution which is for condemning the Russian military action against Ukraine.

What are the available options in front of India?

India has four options in front of it: 1) Condemn Russian aggression 2) Support Russian aggression  3) Stay silent on Russian aggression 4) Express displeasure and call for diplomacy.

Among these options, the first one will pit India against Russia, the second will pit it against the U.S. and its allies. The third option will mark it as pro-Russia, and the fourth option, which it has taken, is the least harmful.

India has taken a pro-Russian stand in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite passionate appeals by the Ukrainian ambassador to India. This tilt is also shared by the Indian strategic community. This is seen as a product of time tested friendship and also a geopolitical necessity

What are the reasons behind India’s pro-Russia position?

First, India’s tilt towards Russia is based on a calculation that India needs both USA and Russia to counter China. With the weakening of the USA-led global order and the assertive rise of China, it is important for India to have Russia by its side.

Second, there is emerging dualism in India’s security calculus. India needs Russia to manage continental space, which is under threat from China, Pakistan, and Taliban. Maritime space provides an opportunity to break this. And it is here in Indo-Pacific that the USA and its Allies present an opportunity to balance the Chinese threat through QUAD.

How does the war in Ukraine have major implications for India’s strategic interest?

First, Russian action in Ukraine neglecting the concerns of the rest of the international community including the U.S. will also encourage China and its territorial ambitions.

Second, the new sanctions regime may have implications for India’s defence cooperation with Russia

Third, the longer the standoff lasts, China and Russia will come closer, which is not good for India.

Finally, the more severe the U.S.-Russia rivalry becomes, the less focus there would be on the Indo-Pacific and China, where India’s interests lie.

What does the Indian move in UNSC signify?

India’s response to the Ukraine crisis exposes the vulnerability of India, given its hostile neighborhood.

This may diminish India’s projection as major power or swing state.

It also shows that when it comes to geopolitics, India will choose its interests over principles.

The move shows India’s adherence to strategic autonomy and safeguarding its own interests.

Source: This post is based on the article “The anatomy of India’s Ukraine dilemma” published in  The Hindu on 28th February 2022.