A Setback for Moscow

Source– The post is based on the article “A Setback for Moscow” published in The Indian Express on 13th September 2022.

Syllabus: GS2- International Relations

News- The article talks about the important development taking place in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and the dimensions of war that India needs to watch closely.

Recently, Russia suffered a serious setback in Ukraine and was pushed back at some fronts by Ukrainian army.

What are the key events that are happening currently in the war?

Ukraine’s army has captured some key towns in the northeast of the country that have been under Russian occupation. The latest reports suggest that Ukraine has regained an estimated area of nearly 3,000 sq km.

Russia has formally acknowledged that it has pulled out of a large part of the Kharkiv region and is regrouping for a better defence of its territorial gain in the Donbas region.

Until now, the consensus was in favor of prolonged stalemate between the two sides. Ukraine’s territorial gains in the last few days have made Ukraine’s victory a real possibility. Russia is surely losing ground.

What are the dimensions that India needs to have a close watch?

First is the nature of the debate in Moscow. Until now, domestic political environment has been favorable for Putin in Russia. But now, with the setbacks, this attitude of Russian population might change.

Second, Putin will have to recast its military strategy. He has to escalate the offensive to a higher level including the threat to use nuclear weapons. These options carry huge risks.

Third, Russian military setbacks could weaken the Russian sphere of influence. Major aim of Putin’s Ukraine war is to expand the Russian zone of influence in Eurasia.

Fourth, Ukraine gain and sustained US pressure could compel European nations to continue their opposition to war. Putin thought that European dependence on Russian natural gas will make it difficult for Europe to sustain its support for Ukraine.

Fifth, it can alter the nature of China’s relations with the US and Russia. It will send strategic ripples across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. Putin and Xi Jinping announced an alliance “without limits” and “no forbidden areas”. Beijing has lent political support to Moscow in the war.

What should be India’s strategy?

Until now, India’s focus has been on managing the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and limiting its geopolitical impact on India’s security.

The intensive regional summit in Samarkand and the annual session of the UN General Assembly in New York – should give Delhi a close look at the changing dynamics in Ukraine and develop an effective response.