The role of the ‘China Test’ in India’s grand strategy

Source: This post is based on the article “The role of the ‘China Test’ in India’s grand strategy” published in The Hindu on 12^th December, 2022

Syllabus Topic – GS Paper 2- International Relations – India and its neighborhood

Context: India needs to decide its principal contradiction. As per the article, China is the principal contradiction for India. Therefore, India should check all its strategies through the China test.

Principle contradiction poses the most intense challenge to an individual/organisation, and has the power to shape its future choices and consequent outcomes.

All other challenges like Pakistan, internal insurgencies and other neighboring countries are secondary contradictions for India.

Therefore, major decisions in India’s strategic decision matrix should pass the China test.

What more can be the elements of China test?

China test’ consists of three distinct elements:

1. Assessment of a certain Indian decision or a specific regional development squares with Chinese regional strategy or interests.
2. Does India need to modify its decision or a certain regional development due to secondary contradictions.
3. An assessment of whether this would require any major policy changes internally.

How would China-test affect India’s relationship with other countries?

India-US relations: China seeks to dominate the Indo-Pacific region. In this light, growing India-U.S. proximity is not its interest and is one of the reasons behind China’s aggression. But a China-Test would suggest that India should not worry about short term implications of poking China, by ignoring its long-term implications. Therefore, India should maintain the warm relations with US.

India- Pakistan Relations: For China, the best case scenario will be India’s preoccupation with Pakistan, so that China could focus on dominating the south Asia. However, the China-test suggest that India’s objective in South Asia should be to seek a pacification of conflicts with Pakistan, so that it can focus on China.

Pakistan US relations: Should India oppose growing proximity of Pakistan with US? India need not oppose the American engagement of Pakistan. It helps prevent Pakistan from going into the China camp completely. A Pakistan engaged with the U.S. and the West is better for India than a Pakistan shunned by the U.S. and the West.

India-Russia relations: The U.S. and its allies would like India to stop engaging with Moscow and condemn its aggression against Ukraine — which India has refused to do. So, does continuing its relationship with Moscow help New Delhi better deal with the China challenge, given the growing relationship of Russia-China?

A complete break away from Russia will strengthen Sino-Russian cooperation and cut India out of the continental space to its north and west. India would loss the discounted energy and cheaper defence equipment, benefitting China. Laos, it will not only push Moscow towards Pakistan, but provide China with a growing influence in Central Asia.