In light of the Russia-Ukraine war, an opportunity to modernise India’s defence industry

Source– The post is based on the article “In light of the Russia-Ukraine war, an opportunity to modernise India’s defence industry” published in The Indian Express on 8th February 2023.

Syllabus: GS2- International Relations

Relevance– Changing geopolitics and defence ecosystem

News– New global defence engagements are emerging with the Ukraine war. It opens the possibility of modernising its defence industrial base for India

What are new geopolitical dynamics emerging in the context of the Ukraine war?

Asia is no longer a passive theatre for rivalry among the Western powers. Asian powers are contributing to European security. NATO is stepping up its engagement with Asian powers.

Pakistan is transferring ammunition to Ukraine as part of a major diplomatic effort to reset relations with the US. The current government is trying to correct that tilt towards the Sino-Russian alliance by the former PM.

North Korea has joined the party on the other side. Russia has turned to North Korea for the supply of winter clothing and ammunition. Iran has become a major supplier of drones to Russia.

Turkey has supplied drones and more to Ukraine over the last year. It has also been in the lead in creating diplomatic engagement between Ukraine and Russia.

South Korea has emerged as a major supplier of arms to Europe. South Korea and Japan are not only bringing NATO into Asia, but also taking Asia to NATO’s frontlines with Russia.

The idea that Europe and Asia are separate strategic theatres is becoming difficult to sustain. China’s alliance “without limits” unveiled last year with Russia has broken it.

The US has responded by promoting greater cooperation between NATO and America’s Asian allies. NATO’s Madrid summit last June saw the participation for the first time of Asian leaders from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea.

How is the global defence ecosystem changing?

Korean arms sales to Europe are surging. Poland alone is expected to bury nearly $16 billion worth of arms from South Korea. Norway and Estonia are among other European states looking for Korean arms to cope with the perceived security threats from Russia.

Moscow’s neighbours to the West are also arming themselves with new weapons due to fear of Russian expansionism. The Western and Russian arms industries are not able to meet the massive demand.

The arms bazaar is no longer exclusively Western. Asian powers are now important producers and traders of weapons.

China is the fourth largest arms exporter in the world after the US, Russia, and France. Most of China’s arms exports are to the developing world.

Korea arms exports reached nearly $20 billion last year. It is now ranked eighth on the list of arms exporters. The capacity to deliver high-quality weapons at low cost and on short order has put Korea in a pivotal position.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has also woken up Japan to rethink its security policies. Japan’s recent national defence policy has led to selling arms to friends and partners. It has provided some non-lethal military assistance to Ukraine.

It plans to double defence spending over the next five years. Japan is also tying up with European and American arms companies to develop fighter aircraft, missiles and drones for domestic use as well as exports.

What is the case of India?

India wants to be an exporter of arms. The export of Brahmos to the Philippines last year has been a major milestone in the country’s evolution as an arms producer.

The largest destination for Indian arms exports is not the developing world, but the US. That has largely come from the Indian supply sub-assemblies to US weapons systems.

India is facing competition from the better-organised and more developed South Korean manufacturers.

What is the way forward for the defence ecosystem in India?

For India, the new and dynamic defence engagement between Europe and Asia opens up multiple opportunities. This includes the possibilities for modernising its  defence industrial base in partnership with friendly states.

India’s recent agreement with the US on expanding joint defence production and technology should be a precursor to agreements with its partners to enhance its arms exports.