If Indian troops are removed, Maldives will lose a diplomatic card to balance China

Source: The post is based on the article “If Indian troops are removed, Maldives will lose a diplomatic card to balance China…it will also distance France and US” published in The Times of India on 6^th October 2023.

Syllabus: GS 2 – International Relations – Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Relevance: India and Maldives Relation

News: The newly elected President of the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, has stated his intention to withdraw Indian troops from the Maldives. This has raised concerns that the Maldives may shift its alignment toward China, causing concerns for India.

How has been the bilateral relation between India and Maldives?

The recent statement about removing Indian troops from the Maldives is potentially influenced by external factors.

However, historically, India has maintained a supportive relationship with the Maldives, including instances such as Operation Cactus in 1988, assistance during the 2004 tsunami, and support during the Covid pandemic.

Read More: Election of China-friendly Mohamed Muizzu could test Indo-Maldives ties

What may be the probable consequences of Maldives removing the Indian troops from its country?

The removal of Indian troops from the Maldives may affect the nation’s diplomatic balance with China and strain relations with France, the US, and India.

Moreover, India should also explore options like relocating troops and radar stations to an Indian island on the Laccadive Ridge.

Further, despite removal, diplomatic efforts with Maldives should still continue, highlighting India’s significance in the Indian Ocean region.

How does the removal of troops may impact India’s position in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)?

The possible withdrawal of Indian troops from the Maldives may not be a significant setback for India. Instead, it will give opportunity to India to adjust its diplomacy in response to China’s presence in the Indian Ocean region.

Moreover, India has matched China’s development efforts in the Maldives, and past tensions with Maldives have not seriously damaged bilateral ties. Hence, the current statement by given by Muizzu may need further observation.

What are the concerns for countries in the IOR aligning their interest with China?

The Chinese debt trap is a legitimate concern for the countries located in the IOR. Countries in the IOR should also be cautious of Chinese practices, especially their acquisition of critical infrastructure like ports, as seen in Sri Lanka.

Moreover, India has been engaged with and supporting IOR nations for years through organizations like Saarc and IORARC, whereas China is a relatively new entrant in the region.

How can India respond to the Chinese challenge in the IOR?

India’s history of naval exercises with IOR nations and its successful hosting of the recent G20 enhance its stature and could lead to deeper engagement with IOR countries.

Foreign Minister Jaishankar has also highlighted the importance of aligning logistics chains and improving naval interoperability in the IOR. He advocated cooperation with like-minded nations like the US, Australia, and Japan to counter the Chinese threat.