Indian Ocean Warming and Its Impact

Source-This post on Indian Ocean Warming and Its Impact has been created based on the article “Sea also rises” published in “The Hindu” on 1 May 2024.

UPSC Syllabus–GS Paper-1– geographical features and their location-changes in critical geographical features (including water-bodies and ice-caps) and in flora and fauna and the effects of such changes & GS Paper-3-Disaster management.

Context-The article discusses the likely impact of increase in warming of Indian ocean on monsoon patterns, intensity of cyclones etc.

What does the recent study led by scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune predict?

The study predicts the impact of expected global carbon emission trends on the Indian Ocean. It highlights that the Indian Ocean has already warmed by 1.2° C and could further heat up by 1.7° C to 3.8° C from 2020 to 2100.

What are the potential consequences of this warming trend in the Indian Ocean?

1) Increase in Marine Heatwaves-The study warns of an increase in ‘marine heatwaves’, which could rise from an average of 20 days per year to 220–250 days per year.

2) Increase in thermal capacity of ocean– The ocean’s heat is rising, not just on the surface but also from the surface down to 2,000 meters below. Currently, it’s increasing at a rate of 4.5 zetta-joules per decade in that depth range. It’s expected to speed up to 16–22 zetta-joules per decade in the future.

NOTE– Joule is a unit of energy and 1 zetta joule is a billion-trillion joules (10^21).

3) Impact on biodiversity-This prolonged heating could lead to a near-permanent heatwave state in the tropical Indian Ocean, causing coral bleaching and harming the fisheries sector.

Read more- Impact of Climate Change on Monsoon

How does the warming of the Indian Ocean impact mainland India? 

1) The warming of the Indian Ocean can lead to an increase in severe cyclones and make the monsoon more erratic.

2) This could result in longer periods of drought followed by intense rainfall and flooding on the mainland.

What is the limitation of current global commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions pose in addressing the warming of the Indian Ocean?

The current global commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may not be able to significantly mitigate the warming of the Indian Ocean. This is because, unlike land, the oceans respond more slowly to changes in external inputs thus making it challenging to reverse the warming trend.

What should be the way forward?

India should partner with neighboring countries to gather more data, which is currently lacking compared to the Pacific. This data will help make better predictions and guide efforts to protect people and infrastructure.

Question for practice

Highlight the potential consequences of global warming trend in the Indian Ocean? How does the warming of the Indian Ocean impact mainland India?